VDSI:xnas - VASCO Data Security International Inc.

VASCO Data Security International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and markets security systems to secure and manage access to user digital assets worldwide. The company offers VACMAN, a host system authentication platform that combines technologies in one unique platform; IDENTIKEY Authentication Server that adds server functionality to the VACMAN core authentication platform; DIGIPASS for APPS, a client platform for mobile applications; DIGIPASS clients, a suite of approximately 50 multi-application client e-signature software products; and DIGIPASS as a Service and MYDIGIPASS.COM, an cloud-based authentication services platform, which offers secure access to multiple online and in-the-cloud applications to enterprise employees, businesses, and consumers. It also provides IDENTIKEY Appliance, an authentication solution that offers two-factor authentication for remote access to a corporate network or to Web-based in-house business applications; IDENTIKEY Virtual Appliance, a virtualized authentication appliance that secures remote access to corporate networks and Web-based applications; and IDENTIKEY Federation Server, a server appliance that provides an identity and access management platform. In addition, the company offers DIGIPASS product line that exists as a family of software and hardware client authentication products and services for authenticating users to any network, such as the Internet and mobile applications. Its DIGIPASSES calculate dynamic signatures and passwords to authenticate users on a computer network and for various other applications. The DIGIPASS technology is also designed to operate on desktop PC or laptops, personal digital assistants, mobile phones, and smart cards. The company sells its security solutions through its direct sales force, distributors, resellers, and systems integrators. VASCO Data Security International, Inc. was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Oakbrook Terrace, Illinois.

Análise técnica:

A empresa está num canal de tendencia ascendente a corrigir no dia de hoje na media movel de 21 dias e nos dias anteriores na media movel de 55 dias.

Parece estar a formar um triangulo ascendente com possível quebra nos 20 dolares, mas o volume tem diminuido nos últimos dias.

Se o triangulo ascendente se verificar poderá ter como price target a zona dos 26 dolares analisando apenas o gráfico.




Análise fundamental:



Recomendação:

Segundo as estimativas para o próximo ano de volume de negocio e apesar da empresa não ser diluidora, o justo valor da cotação é o do modelo de avaliação futuro. Consideramos para esse efeito o PER da industria no valor indicado no quadro. Nessa perspectiva recomendamos vender a acção.


Porem segundo o ZACKS (ver aqui ), se considerarmos o PER de 41,17, o modelo económico futuro será o seguinte:



De qualquer forma a análise é de venda.

Porem, segundo a análise técnica a opção é comprar com a formação do triangulo ascendente e possível quebra do mesmo com potencial de valorização de 23% com price target de 26 que corresponde á diagonal do triangulo traçada para cima da zona de ruptura nos 20 dolares (zona de resistência).



Por outro lado segundo ZACKS a opção é de compra, e segundo o finviz o price target é de 22 dolares.
FINVIZ
ZACKS

A análise técnica estava correcta.

A empresa quebrou o triangulo ascendente com força atingindo o price target definido com potencial de 23 %.



Espera-se a correcção á antiga zona de resistência que poderá-se tornar um suporte válido, a acompanhar a média movel.

Noticia de 28 de Outubro de 2014

Vasco Data Security (NASDAQ:VDSI) early Tuesday reported a double-digit jump in Q3 revenue and earnings and increased its guidance for the year, sending its stock to its highest levels since January 2008.

The Oakbrook Terrace, Ill.-based company said earnings per share excluding items from continuing operations was 28 cents, up 65% from the year-earlier quarter. Revenue from continuing operations rose 34% to $52.6 million.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had modeled EPS ex items of 10 cents and $42.75 million in revenue.

Vasco stock was up more than 28% in morning trading in the stock market today, near 23.50.

Vasco boosted its guidance for revenue and operating profit margins for the year. Revenue from its traditional business, which excludes new service product offerings Digipass and MYDigipass.com, is expected to be at least $190 million, up from the $175 million to $180 million that it had previously forecast.

Analysts have modeled 2014 EPS ex items of 54 cents and $177.8 million in revenue.

Vasco provides authentication and e-signature products and services, specializing in helping secure online accounts, identities and transactions.

Vasco CEO Kendall Hunt said in a conference call with analysts that his company's record revenue last quarter reflects "strong growth from both our banking and enterprise and application security markets."

Hunt said the increase of sophisticated hacking attempts has boosted demand for security defenses. Vasco has launched new "two-factor authentication" technology that includes one-time passwords and electronic signatures for secure banking. With a one-time password system, the login password expires after 30 seconds to prevent use by hackers, Hunt explained.

Vasco Chief Operating Officer Jan Valcke said revenue from the company's Banking unit jumped 37% — helped by both existing and new customers — while the Enterprise and Application Security segment rose 23%.

Hunt said Vasco aims to provide customers with the next generation of authentication and digital signature technologies. He said Vasco continues to expand its client base in segments beyond its core business, such as "application security for cloud application developers and independent software vendors."

Read More At Investor's Business Daily: http://news.investors.com/102814-723760-vasco-stock-pops-as-banks-shore-up-cyberdefenses.htm#ixzz3HeLv0uO3
Follow us: @IBDinvestors on Twitter | InvestorsBusinessDaily on Facebook

A empresa continua a subir longe das médias móveis de 21 a 55 dias.

Relatório trimestral pode ser encontrado aqui .

Update de análise técnica:

A empresa encontra-se a corrigir como era expectável.



VASCO Data Security International Soars 25% On Q3 Earnings
Oct. 28, 2014 1:46 PM ET

Summary

VDSI beat consensus on the top and bottom lines.
The strong earnings further confirms our bullish thesis.
We have long felt that VDSI is one of the underappreciated players in the internet security space.

VASCO Data Security International (NASDAQ:VDSI) managed to post 3Q earnings of $0.28 a share (topping $0.14 consensus) and revenues were $52.6mm (beating $42.8mm consensus). Revenues were up 34% y/y. 3Q revenues were the highest in history. Its 3Q revenues were driven by a 37% y/y increase from banking and a 23% increase from enterprise and application security market. This pushed EBITDA up 129% y/y for 3Q.

Guidance for fiscal 2014 was boosted to $190mm in revenue, topping prior guidance of $175mm to $180mm. What's more is that it has boosted operating margin from 13% to 15% up to 17% to 20%. Driving the upward guidance is the demand for security against hacking attempts - notably among banking.

We covered VDSI after 2Q earnings when the stock spiked 15%. VDSI is now up 25% on the day after 3Q earnings. This caps a 136% YTD run.

We covered VDSI last year, noting that it was an overlooked internet security company, shares are up 200% since then. At the time, we noted,

VASCO is ramping up its sales force to go after more enterprise and application security customers [...] We think a larger sales force will go a long way in growing its business into new markets, especially considering that enterprise & application security account for only 19% of total revenues.

This growth story remains true. Shares trade at 26x forward earnings and below our justified 30x multiple. But it now trades at 28x EV/EBITDA. It still has no debt and over $3 a share in cash. There still looks to be upside at VDSI.

A VDSI tecnicamente ainda não iniciou um processo de correcção forte, pelo que parece estar a formar-se um suporte nos 25,5 dolares.
Terá-se que fazer um update mais pormenorizado á cotação quer fundamental quer tecnicamente.
Neste momento encontra-se a lateralizar.




Vasco outperforms following Bank of Tokyo deal
Dec 10 2014, 14:33 ET | By: Eric Jhonsa, SA News Editor [Contact this editor with comments or a news tip]

The Bank of Tokyo has implemented Vasco's (VDSI +2.2%) two-factor authentication platform to provide better security for online banking customers. The solution features Vasco's Vacman controller (processes login requests) and Digipass authentication products.
Shares are rallying on a day the Nasdaq is down 1.4%. They're now up 264% YTD.

A VDSI após ter atingido um máximo relativo nos 30 dolares tem vindo a corrigir a algumas sessões. Poderá vir fechar o GAP que deixou em aberto quando começou o rally em inicio de Novembro como podemos ver pelo gráfico.
Por isso no curto prazo a nossa analise é sell.

No longo prazo dependerá das expectativas positivas em relação a apresentação de resultados do Q4 que será a 17 de Fevereiro. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vasco-announce-q4-full-2014-140000290.html

Julgo que o modelo de avaliação futuro da VDSI está incorrecto, pois ela teve um crescimento de receita de 44% em 2014 face ao ano homólogo de 2013.

http://seekingalpha.com/news/2300366-vasco-data-security-beats-by-0_12-beats-on-revenue

Assim, fazendo o modelo para 2015 / 2016 vamos calcular o price target da empresa, para ver se coicide com o crescimento que a cotação tem vindo a ter.





Recomendação:

A empresa julgamos que já atingiu o Price target.
Neutral

Após fazer um duplo topo, a VDSI parece estar a transaccionar perto do suporte.

Apesar de estar ligeiramente abaixo do nosso price target de 27 dolares do modelo económico, ponderamos uma participação na empresa, no portfolio.

Vamos analisar com mais atenção no futuro.

Alguns indicadores sobre a empresa:



Conclusão:

Se não houver diluição no futuro, e pelos indicadores de fluxo de caixa parece que não irá ocorrer, a empresa pode valer mais em bolsa no futuro.

De acordo com o EPS para 2016 apresentado no quadro (o último valor do quadro) e no PER de 35, utilizado no modelo económico, estimamos um justo valor no futuro de 40 dolares aproximadamente, se não ocorrer diluição.

Por isso julgamos que nesta fase uma participação é apropriada.