FB:xnas - FAcebook

Operates as a social networking service and website

Facebook, Inc. is a social networking service and website.

It aims to make the world more open and connected.

People use Facebook to stay connected with their friends and family, to discover what is going on in the world around them, and to share and express what matters to them to the people they care about..

The company offers advertisers a unique combination of reach, relevance, social context, and engagement to enhance the value of their ads. Its services include timeline, news feed, messages, lists, ticker and mobile apps.

Facebook was founded by Mark Elliot Zuckerberg, Dustin Moskovitz, Chris R. Hughes and Eduardo Saverin on February 4, 2004 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, CA.

Análise Técnica:

Apesar do GAP verificado á duas sessões a linha de tendência ascendente mantêm-se. Poderá ser um bom ponto de compra tecnicamente.





Análise fundamental:





Vamos considerar o PER do FINVIZ: Ver aqui .




Segundo o modelo a um ano e com o per considerado (ter em conta que o PER da industria é de 61.8 ( ver aqui . ) temos o facebook com um justo valor de 78 dólares.

Considerando um modelo a mais de 3 anos o crescimento será:




Recomendação:

Manter. Está a transaccionar abaixo das médias móveis de 21 e 55 dias e acima da linha de tendência ascendente.
Têm um GAP para preencher.

A recomendação no Zacks é hold .

Ver a noticia com os gráficos aqui.

Facebook’s earnings call was not what many had hoped, with the stock taking a hit after the fact.

But does the drop make it a buy here?


We’ll answer that question after taking a look at the overall market.

Wednesday's central bank confab was much ado about nothing, as the widely expected end to the extra-curricular stimulus produced a minimal reaction.

Wednesday’s session, characterized by heavy volume without further price progress. qualified as a distribution day, or a session marked by institutional selling. Every advance has such days which, in isolation, reflect normal profit-taking.


It is when a few distribution days occur within a short proximity of one another that the yellow flag gets hoisted, especially when some of the advance's individual leaders start to come undone.

A few big leaders have begun to unwind, e.g., Twitter TWTR, +1.91% but not many. Facebook FB, +1.16% at 6.5% off its high, cannot be faulted yet. It attempted to come out of its three-week, “V”-shaped shelf, but did not get very far before its earnings release knifed it. The stock now sits below its 50-day moving average, a key spot for large investors to add to their holdings in a bull market.


The rule here for a 50-day pullback entrance is that if price closes beneath the 50 and then undercuts that day's low during the following session, the stock should not be bought. In FB's case, if price takes out Wednesday's low, it would be a candidate for short-sale.

The price/volume action of Facebook has been suspicious for a few months. It was very quiet in August, which can be excused due to the summer doldrums. But since then, there have been few days of unbridled accumulation that send a message of large-investor conviction. The view here is that the stock may be "over-owned" by institutions. If so, this would represent a bearish outlook for the stock over the intermediate-term (several weeks to several months) if not longer-term.

If institutions do set in gear an unwind process on FB, this may likely take months to complete. Large positions cannot simply be dumped en masse into the marketplace without it upsetting the supply/demand balance. As it can take months for institutions to build a position, so it can take months to break down that same position.

This is merely one potential scenario. As always, it is best not to jump to a conclusion about FB, or any other stock, but rather to interpret its price/volume action each day in an objective manner. No one knows what will happen to the stock, as no one owns a crystal ball. Relying upon personal opinion and prediction can be hazardous.

For the market is usually right, while opinions often are not.

Among the names, Spirit Airlines SAVE, -0.89% is a bona fide growth stock in a cyclical industry. Most analysts who track the company on Wall Street forecast earnings growth of 34% this year and 34% next year. The company is obviously being helped by the large drop in the price of crude oil.

The stock's relative strength rank is in the 95th percentile for price performance over the past year while its group is ranked 82nd. The stock is under extreme accumulation, or professional buying.

Technically, like many other names, SAVE has made a “V”-ish type chart pattern. What differentiates it from many “V”-patterned stocks in the market is that it began basing a few weeks before dropping along with the averages in October. This is considered a more constructive pattern.

At present, price is up 37.6% in less than two weeks. This type of quick gain likely needs some time to digest in order to keep the crowd honest. Therefore, with earnings out of the way, the stock can be monitored for a pullback or handle from which an entrance could then be considered.

Medivation MDVN, +3.20% is a member of the top-performing biotechnology group. This is one that has both earnings and revenue. The company is expected to grow earnings by 43% in 2015, according to most analysts who study the company. Revenue, meanwhile, has grown 160%, 89% and 111% over the past three quarters, respectively.

The stock is ranked 97th for relative price strength and is under extreme accumulation, while its group owns a 99 relative-strength rank. Technically, the stock based for a couple of weeks prior to its descent into the correction which enveloped the general market. Hence, it has been basing for over five weeks at this point.

Waiting until its earnings report is released would allow the stock to spend even more time digesting its 21% move up the right side of its pattern. The report is expected on Nov. 6 after the close. Pending the market's reaction to the announcement, a standard breakout entrance could be considered.


The averages can be expected to pause so they can digest their recent sizzling gains. One scenario would be for the Nasdaq to form a sideways handle without surrendering much ground, paving the way for a standard base breakout. Most leading stocks are holding up through the end of earnings season, though there have been a few widely publicized blow-ups. The speculator in growth shares has an ample, if not abundant, menu of pattern setups from which to choose.

Kevin Marder

For intraday market comments and stock ideas: https://twitter.com/mardermarket

Apesar da pequena força relativa e do suporte ascendente e apesar de transaccionar abaixo da media movel, o FB no longo prazo parece uma optima compra. A beneficiar dos resultados crescentes e dos múltiplos da indústria, parece que o seu valor mais tarde ou mais cedo irá crescer no mercado.

A recomendação é de compra.

Update técnico:

A empresa encontra-se a lateralizar.




VER ARTIGO COM FIGURAS AQUI .

Facebook Is Undervalued Based On The Company's Growth Outlook
Nov. 13, 2014 7:43 AM ET
Summary

Facebook's growth is extraordinary, in the last quarter revenues are up 59%, user numbers are still growing at a double digit pace.
Facebook's fundamentals look good: High (and growing) margins and returns on capital, no debt.
Facebook's earnings multiple is at an all time low.
The Graham formula suggests that Facebook is trading at a discount to its intrinsic value right now.
The DCF method suggests that Facebook is undervalued if the long term EPS growth rate exceeds 5% annually.

Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) has seen a decline in its stock price after the company released its third quarter results, Facebook now trades seven percent below its 52 week high. This could be a good entry point for investors interested in the social media giant.

Latest results

On October 28, 2014, Facebook reported third quarter results: Revenues were $3.2 billion (up 59% yoy), net income (GAAP) grew 90% to $806 million, net income (non-GAAP) grew 73% to $1149 million. Diluted EPS (non-GAAP) came in at $0.43, up 59% yoy (diluted EPS (GAAP) came in at $0.30, up 76% yoy). This has been another strong quarter for Facebook with almost 60% revenue growth and further profit margin expansion. For the first nine months of 2014 Facebook' revenues are up 62% to $8.6 billion. Third quarter free cash flow was $766 million.

The number of Daily Active Users (DAU) increased by 19% to 864 million in the third quarter, the number of mobile DAUs increased 39% yoy to 703 million. The number of monthly users increased 14% to 1.35 billion (the number of mobile monthly users increased 29% to 1.12 billion). Facebook's user numbers are still growing at a double digit pace, growth is even faster in Facebook's mobile segment.


Since Facebook highly depends on a rising number of users I will start with this chart, depicting the number of Facebook's DAUs over the last nine quarters. Facebook is growing its user base in all four regions of the world, unsurprisingly the growth pace is the lowest in established markets (North America and Europe) and highest in Asia and the Rest of the world. Quarter to quarter Facebook grow by another 35 million daily users, bringing the total number of DAUs to 864 million.

The ratio of DAUs to MAUs (daily to monthly users) is 64% in the third quarter, higher than it has been over the last two years. This ratio is increasing, showing that users are getting more attached to Facebook - an increasing quotient of users chooses to spend time on Facebook's social networks every day.

FB Revenue

Over the last twelve months Facebook's results have shown strong growth: Trailing revenue is $11.2 billion (up 42% yoy), net income grew to $2.76 billion (up 84% yoy) and earnings per share (diluted) grew to $1.05 (up 78% yoy).

FB Profit Margin Chart

Facebook's profit margin is very high (25%) and rapidly increasing. Just over the last twelve months the company managed to expand its margin from 19% to 25%. The result is a net income growth rate that is a lot higher than the company's revenue growth rate. Facebook's returns on capital are great as well, the company's ROCE is 27.4% (and has also increased rapidly over the past). This shows that the company is able to allocate shareholder's capital in a very profitable way.

Facebook does not use any leverage at all (debt/equity ratio of 0.00) and has very high liquidity (current ratio of 13.1). This makes Facebook a rather safe investment with a very low insolvency risk. Facebook holds cash and equivalents amounting to $14.3 billion.


Facebook has high multiples: The company's trailing P/E ratio is 71.8, the trailing EV/EBITDA ratio is 32.4. These multiples are high compared to the market, but they are low compared to Facebook's historic multiples: As you can see in the chart above, Facebook's P/E ratio has been declining considerably over the last twelve months and now is at a 52 week low. We may have a buying opportunity for this high growth company, which has always had higher multiples over its (rather short) company history.

The EPS growth rate estimate for the next five years is 36.4% annually, the PEG ratio thus is 1.98 - not a low valuation, but not a really high valuation either. Facebook's forward P/E ratio is 39.4.

THE ANALIST USE THE GRAHAM FORMULA THAT IS VERY USEFULL:


If we use the Graham formula to determine Facebook's fair value, we are led to the following conclusion:

V= EPS*(8.5+2*G)*4.4/Y

wherein

EPS = earnings per share in the last twelve months

G = estimated EPS growth rate over the next 5 years

Y = yield on AAA corporate bonds

If we apply Facebook's numbers, we receive the following intrinsic value:

$1.05*(8.5+2*36.4)*4.4/4.1 = $91.61.

The Graham formula suggests Facebook has upside of 21% to its intrinsic value. Based on the analysts EPS growth consensus for the next five years (which is a lot less than Facebook's current growth rate) Facebook is trading at a discount at today's price.

Discounted cash flow method

Another, more advanced, method of determining a businesses value is the approach of discounting all future cash flows with a desired return rate and adding these present values.

Additional to the numbers used above, we have to use some more presumptions:

For the first 5 years, we can use the expected growth rate of 36.4% from above, for the time after, I will use multiple scenarios.

We will use a discount factor of 10% (this means our goal for our investment is an average annual return of 10%):

If we assume that the EPS growth rate after year five will be a conservative 5%, the current value is $75.12.

If we assume that the EPS growth rate will level down to an average 6% after year five, we get a fair value of $92.05.

If we assume that the EPS growth rate will level down to 7% annually after year five, we get a fair value of $120.27.

High growth in the next couple of years and ongoing growth thereafter will be achieved due to a number of reasons:

- Growing number of Facebook users, with just 240M users in Asia Facebook has still a lot of room to grow.

- Facebook's users are becoming more active, the ratio of daily users to monthly users is increasing - this means that more ad revenue per user will be generated (as the time spent on Facebook's social networks increases).

- Facebook's margins are expanding considerably, the company's bottom line will grow at a faster pace than its top line (e.g. in the last quarter revenue increased by 59% and net income increased by 90%).

- Facebook's acquisitions (WhatsApp, Instagram, Oculus) will start contributing to the company's bottom line in the future.

The DCF method leads to the following conclusion: Facebook is fairly valued if the company's long term EPS growth rate is 5%, it is undervalued if the company manages to grow at a faster pace. Based on Facebook's high growth potential I think an EPS growth rate of 5% is very conservative. A higher growth rate seems more appropriate - Facebook is undervalued right now.
Bottom line

Facebook is a company with an extraordinary growth pace and great fundamentals (high and expanding margins and returns on capital, high liquidity, low debt). Although Facebook's multiples are not low, they are lower than they have been since the company went public, providing a buying opportunity right now.

Based on its future growth rate Facebook is trading at a discount to its intrinsic value, based on the Graham formula and the DCF method (assuming a long term growth rate of more than 5%).

With its high growth pace Facebook is a compelling investment at today's price, 7% below its 52 week high and with its P/E ratio at an all time low.

VER ARTIGO AQUI

What's Inside Facebook's Oculus Rift? Investment Opportunity
Nov. 17, 2014 8:44 PM ET
Summary

Facebook has a vision for virtual reality, and will likely be aggressive in throwing development and investment dollars into the industry.
The VR market is estimated to become a $7 billion industry by 2018 with Facebook set up to be a dominant player for the hardware and content.
I agree with Mark Zuckerberg's view of VR's future marketability, but the critics of the early-stage technology are correct. New components will be built with corresponding investment needed.
Facebook's Oculus Rift is due to be released to the broad consumer market some time in 2015 alongside other VR devices within the next year.
Sophic Capital has identified several companies that build components of the Rift which will benefit from the consumer release and as new generations of the product are developed.

Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) laid the groundwork for a new generation of revenue when it purchased virtual reality developer Oculus VR for $2 billion. This acquisition has put the company in a unique position where it has control over one of the top hardware manufacturers in the VR industry in addition to being able to influence the production and direction of software and content for VR to its users and the population at large. Virtual reality is in its infant stages and I believe Facebook will continue to throw money at the industry through investment in Oculus and further strategic acquisitions to ensure a dominant position in the projected $2.3 billion hardware market and $4.7 billion software market by 2018.

While virtual reality is considered the future of gaming, some people have shown reservations over Mark Zuckerberg's vision that it can change the way people communicate and do business. There are technological hurdles to overcome and there are doubts that people will accept virtual reality contact as a form of truly connecting with others.

I will tackle the latter issue of marketability first. The criticism of VR communication is that while you are connecting with others on some level, ultimately you are alone. Detractors often point to the lackluster performance of Second Life, the online virtual world which was over-hyped a decade ago, as a reason to doubt virtual reality as something that will become mainstream. The videophone concept that started in the 1970s was never a commercial success, but eventually technology developed to the point where the concept gained market acceptance. Skype ended up getting purchased by Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) for $8.5 billion in 2011 on the concept of face-to-face video communication that saves customers long distance phone charges.

Friends and family members who live at opposite ends of the world would find great use out of VR communication at the right cost and functionality, even if they are "alone." You are also technically alone while on Skype and yet that business model managed a valuation of more than four times of Oculus according to one of the largest technology companies in the world. In that context Facebook's purchase of Oculus looks very reasonable, albeit for a company that is a few years behind Skype on the revenue curve at the time of its purchase.

Virtual reality in its most fantasized form could blur the line between what is human bonding and what isn't - so the term loneliness is really put into question. If two or more people are in the same "location" and sharing the same experience in which they can reflect back upon at a later date, that is a large part of human bonding. I agree with Mark Zuckerberg's statement that Oculus has the potential to be the "most social platform ever" with the right strategic vision and necessary investment.

I also see virtual reality being utilized to enhance many different online social functions. For instance, online dating has exploded in popularity and is now mainstream because it's an efficient, anonymous and safe way to be introduced to many people at once which fits into the fast-pace lifestyle of the people who partake in it. But that anonymity and safety online can turn into a disadvantage when meeting face-to-face as people can lie about their physical and personality traits, potentially bringing harm or disappointment to the other party. I predict that "virtual dating" will be the next step in online dating as you can evaluate another person much better in the virtual world than with words on a screen or on Skype. In the case of a mismatch, it saves feelings of embarrassment as no one else will be there to witness one person walking out on the other and promotes safety because you can log out immediately if the other person is creepy. Such concepts are already starting to take place with avatars, but I believe it will be enhanced to a mainstream audience where the participants are required to provide a realistic likeness.

These types of utilities will be enormous for VR one day, but the technology is still in its infant stages. Oculus has made great strides between its first and second Development Kits and further improvements are expected as the company plans to release the long-awaited consumer version of the Oculus Rift sometime in 2015. In my article titled "Will Facebook Target This Leading Edge Virtual Reality Technology Company Next?," it was shown that the Spectra7 VR7100 chip made by Spectra7 Microsystems Inc. (OTC:SPVNF) was a key component in the improved DK2 version of the Rift.

Sophic Capital released an industry report titled "Virtual Reality: A Virtual Goldmine For Investors" which gets into the detail of the market size, uses and potential of virtual reality. Page 11 of the report shows what is inside the Oculus Rift courtesy of IFIXIT during its Oculus Rift Development Kit 2 Teardown. Sophic Capital provides a detailed breakdown of each component that's produced by a publicly traded company as outlined below.

The companies mentioned as being component pieces of the Oculus Rift include:

Spectra7 Microsystems
InvenSense, Inc. (NYSE:INVN)
Toshiba Corporation (OTCPK:TOSBF)
STMicroelectronics NV (NYSE:STM)
Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (OTC:SSNLF)

Out of these five companies, the three of greatest interest and most highly traded on North American markets are INVN, STM and Spectra7, which trades much more frequently on the TSX Venture under the symbol SEV over its OTC symbol.

InvenSense builds the chips necessary to track motion in a variety of consumer electronics such as smartphones so the device can tell which way it has been tilted or for GPS-tracking capabilities. The VR industry would be a natural extension for INVN's chips, particularly if it can maintain industry-leading performance on size and efficiency on power as both are top concerns of VR manufacturers. The impact of the VR industry on INVN's revenue growth can be material as the company has around a $1.3 billion market cap and is expected to achieve $444M in revenue next year. If INVN grabs 2.5% of the projected $8.4 billion in aggregate VR hardware revenue from 2014 through 2018 as an input to the Oculus Rift and other VR devices, it collects $200 million in aggregate revenue during this time. This assumes that the conservative VR estimates aren't exceeded. The impact to INVN could end up being much more.

STM is a competitor to INVN and remains a threat to compete for INVN's business within the Oculus Rift as well as provide the inputs it currently produces for the VR headset. STM's market cap is considerably larger at $6.2 billion and with projected revenue of $7.5 billion next year the company's contribution to the VR industry is not likely to impact it too significantly. However, as a leading-edge chip manufacturer, expect it to compete aggressively for this business regardless as all opportunities for growth will be pursued.

Spectra7's contribution to the Oculus Rift remains the most interesting to risk-tolerant speculative investors as it has the smallest market cap at $80 million CDN and lowest revenue as an analyst expects $17 million in 2015. Like INVN, if it were to capture just 2.5% of the VR hardware market through its chip sales to Oculus and other manufacturers, revenues would be $210 million in aggregate and comprise the bulk of the company's business. Spectra7 continues to push the boundaries on the limits of VR technology as it released the VR7200 chip less than six weeks after releasing the VR7050 chip. Spectra7 believes that this new chip will "enable and accelerate the broader commercial availability of the market's first dual screen VR Head Mounted Displays ("HMDs") without the burden of multiple, thick and incremental passive cables." I believe that Spectra7 remains the best target for VR hardware manufacturers to bring in-house as it is the smallest brings significant competitive advantages and is the most pure play of the VR component producers.

What truly lies inside the Oculus Rift is investment opportunity. Not everyone has to agree that virtual reality will be the next big tech movement to hit the market. All that matters is that at least one company with a pile of cash and a large consumer reach in Facebook has a strategic vision. While that vision is being laid out, there will be a lot of investment dollars flowing into the technology and much of the investment media will jump on the bandwagon in search of the next big thing. Now is a great time to speculate as the Rift and other hardware devices are expected to hit consumer markets next year. If Facebook succeeds in its vision for virtual reality it will result in its dominant position for the burgeoning technology and smaller players who contribute and carve their niche either on the hardware or software side will also greatly benefit.

Editor's Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

Existe um rumor de que o Facebook pretende criar um serviço tipo LINKEDIN


Summary

Facebook has been rumored to be developing a professional site that would present a threat to LinkedIn.
The rumor appears to have some credence and fit into management's guidance for expenses to rise between 50% and 75% next year.
Facebook has a history of acquiring companies and integrating their technology into their new platform and there is a possible target for Facebook to create a LNKD competitor.

Artigo interessante sobre o potencial do FACEBOOK no seeking alpha


Facebook: A Gold Mine Exposed By A Rift
Nov. 27, 2014 7:44 AM ET
Summary

Turning Virtual Reality into Virtual Profits.
Most investors still don’t understand what Facebook’s new product even is, and therefore have no idea of what the promise or the potential are.
Every market that will generate income, previously existed, but will now be expanded and tapped with an iTunes efficiency.
This article is an introduction and primer on the possibilities.

FB foi uma das empresas do portfolio que permitiu um pequeno lucro ao fechar o GAP de Novembro. Vendemos perto dos 80 dolares.
Neste momento encontra-se a corrigir.



Pela análise técnica quebrou recentemente uma linha de tendencia ascendente que vinha desde maio. Esta a cotar por cima da mm200 dias e por baixo das mm20 e mm50 dias. Parece que se está a formar um suporte de curo prazo no valor onde está a corrigir durante o dia de hoje, ou poderá no pior cenário estar a formar uma cabeça e ombros, que levará a cotação a minimos relativos das últimas semanas. Recordemos que a mm200 dias poderá ser um suporte válido nos 71 dolares, por isso vamos ver como reage nos próximos dias e se por ventura poderá cair até esse valor.

Neste momento nao consideramos uma boa compra.

Apresenta resultados a 28 janeiro de 2015 e esses valores poderao ditar o comportamento futuro da cotação.

Recordemos que segundo o modelo de avaliação futura tem um price target a 3 anos nos 97 dolares.

Rever post anteriores.

Para ver a correlação que eventualmente o FB poderá ter com o NASDAQ traçamos os gráficos e podemos ver que o FB segue muito a variação do indice.
Existe uma correlação muito elevada, por isso, se analisarmos bem o indice podemos inferir sobre o comportamento da empresa. Relembramos que o FB é uma das cotadas com maior peso relativo no NASDAQ, face ao seu valor de mercado.