GOOGL:xnas - Google Inc.

Google Inc., a technology company, builds products and provides services to organize the information. The company offers Google Search, which provides information online; Knowledge Graph that allows to search for things, people, or places, as well as builds systems that recognize speech and understand natural language; Google Now, which provides information to users when they need it; and Product Listing Ads that offer product image, price, and merchant information. It also provides AdWords, an auction-based advertising program; AdSense, which enables Websites that are part of the Google Network to deliver ads; Google Display, a display advertising network; DoubleClick Ad Exchange, a marketplace for the trading display ad space; and YouTube that offers video, interactive, and other ad formats. In addition, the company offers Android, an open source mobile software platform; hardware products, including Chromebook, Chrome, Chromecast, and Nexus devices; Google+ to share things online with people; Google Play, a cloud-based digital entertainment store for apps, music, books, and movies; Google Drive, a place for users to create, share, collaborate, and keep their stuff; and Google Wallet, a virtual wallet for in-store contactless payments. Further, it provides Google Apps, which include Gmail, Calendar, and Google Sites that are built for people to work anywhere, anytime, on any device without loss of security or control; Google Maps Application Programming Interface; and Google Earth Enterprise, a software solution for imagery and data visualization. Additionally, the company offers Google App Engine, a platform as a service offering; Google Cloud Storage; Google BigQuery for real time analytics; Google Cloud SQL for structured query language; and Google Compute Engine, an infrastructure as a service platform. It also offers mobile wireless devices, and related products and services. Google Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

Análise técnica:

A empresa encontra-se a corrigir no dia de hoje perto da media movel de 21 dias.





Análise fundamental:




Recomendação:

A empresa encontra-se subvalorizada segundo o modelo de avaliação futura a um ano e considerando o PER da empresa actual de 28. Segundo o PER da indústria de 61 a valorização é maior.
Recomendação de compra.
Segundo o ZACKS (ver aqui) a recomendação é hold.

Illustrating Google's Fair Value
Nov. 11, 2014 3:06 PM ET

Summary

The internet search giant has sold off quite a bit since hitting all-time highs earlier this year.
A cash flow analysis was constructed to determine the fair value of the shares.
Google is currently undervalued at its current quote, which makes the shares a compelling buy.

The recent pullback experienced by the stock market has served up an opportunity to deploy funds in well-run dominant companies pulling back from the highs achieved this summer. Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), the internet search giant, neatly falls into this category. The article below will detail what I believe to be a fair value for the shares.



As we can see from the table above, we have used an equity market risk premium (EMRP) of 5.5% when attempting to determine the WACC of GOOG. One of the prominent voices in the industry, Roger Grabowski, has mentioned it is justified to use a 5% EMRP. The suggested risk-free rate of return suggested by the same author is 4%, which is a bit higher than the current 10-year US Treasury bond. By using a higher risk-free rate of return, we are intentionally making our numbers a tad more conservative. If the company is a truly outstanding value, it will still show up as such in the model.

The goal in conducting such exercises is to look for value. The model shouldn't be used as the sole source for entering into an investment, rather as a tool to aid in the selection of suitable portfolio candidates. The wonderful site LeveredReturns, which produced the editable charts seen in the article, has proven itself to the author as an excellent source for the amateur investor for such information.





As we can see from the chart above, the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis implies a fair value of $626 per share, which is 14% higher than where the shares closed on 11/10/2014. I would like to point out that even though GOOG sales are beginning to slow from the blistering pace of the prior couple of years, they are still well above average. Another large-cap company that I hold with similar-looking revenue growth and balance sheet is my perennial favorite Visa (NYSE:V).

I have decided to use the recent pullback of the shares coming off the back of a perceived disappointing earnings release to add this high-quality name to my portfolio. GOOG is now one of my top ten holdings, adding a bit more growth potential over the company it has replaced. I expect to be able to compound at a double-digit rate going forward for the balance of the decade.

In summary, I find GOOG to offer a compelling blend of above-average growth with moderate risk. I am long the shares, exiting my position in CBS Corp. (NYSE:CBS) to make room for the acquisition. If GOOG performs as I expect it to, it very well may double over the course of the next five years. A special thank you to Matt Hogan at LeveredReturns for providing the charts shown in the article. I would like to thank the audience for reading, and I look forward to your comments.

Additional disclosure: Thank you for reading the article. Investors are always reminded that before making any investment, you should do your own proper due diligence on any name directly or indirectly mentioned in this article. Investors should also consider seeking advice from a broker or financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Any material in this article should be considered general information, and not relied on as a formal investment recommendation.

Update técnico:



A google tem vindo a acompanhar a variação da média movel menor. A análise mantem-se com potencial de valorização.

Apesar da análise fundamental á empresa dar como uma empresa com potencial de valorização a longo prazo não é o que está a acontecer a curto prazo. Deve-se seguir a tendência de mercado e neste caso a google está a formar a figura de um triângulo, e tem uma forte zona de suporte na linha traçada no gráfico.
Uma vez que é um triângulo simétrico, o facto da tendência ser quebrada indica um possível fechamento do GAP aberto à cerca de um ano em Outubro de 2013.
Especula-se em relação a uma possível bolha nas empresas tecnológicas e internet providers, o que poderá realçar ainda mais esta correcção. Porem os dados fundamentais da empresa são bastante fortes, mas convem seguir a tendência de mercado.
Se a empresa quebrar em mais de 2% (que é o stop loss da carteira) a zona de suporte vamos pensar abrir uma posição short na mesma, com potencial de valorização o preenchimento do GAP.
Vamos ver o que irá acontecer.
Para já deixo o gráfico da empresa para análise.

Parece estar a formar-se um canal descendente de curto prazo.
Os trades na empresa acarretaram prejuizos, pelo que iremos analisar com mais detalhe para equacionar uma possivel entrada na cotação.

Os 500 dolares parece ser uma zona de suporte.

Continuamos a acreditar nos bons fundamentais da empresa.

Depois de ter quebrado o canal descendente, a google está numa zona de correcção de cp situa-se no valor de 570 a 580 dolares.

Pelo modelo de avaliação económico o seu justo valor é de 700 dolares. Encontra-se perto da mm200 dias.