CSIQ.xnas - Canadian Solar Inc.

Canadian Solar Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells solar wafers, cells, and solar module products worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Module and Project. Its products include various solar modules that are used in residential, commercial, and industrial solar power generation systems. The company also provides specialty solar modules and products consisting of Andes Solar Home System, an off-grid solar system, designed to provide an economical source of electricity to homes and communities without access to grid; and Maple Solar System, a clean energy solution for families, as well as sells solar system kits, which are a ready-to-install packages comprising third party supplied components, such as inverters, racking system, and other accessories. In addition, it implements solar power development projects; performs the engineering design, procurement, and construction (EPC) work for the solar projects; and offers operation and maintenance services that include inspection, repair, and replacement of plant equipment, site management, and administrative support services. Canadian Solar Inc. sells its products under the CanadianSolar and CSI brand names. The company offers its standard solar modules through a direct sales force and sales agents primarily to distributors, system integrators, project developers, and installers/EPC companies. Canadian Solar Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in West Guelph, Canada.



Análise Técnica:

A formação de um triangulo descendente, a transaccionar numa zona de suporte.
Divergencia positiva no RSI.
Volume constante (baixo).

Análise fundamental:

Dados fundamentais:

http://www.4-traders.com/CANADIAN-SOLAR-INC-36332/?type_recherche=rapide&mots=csiq





http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=CSIQ

Recomendação de Zacks:

http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/CSIQ?q=csiq

Dados do sector:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/832.html

Modelo de avaliação futuro (1 ano):

Para aplicar o modelo vamos considerar um PER de 53,5 (valor da industria) ou 5,5 (forward PER da empresa)

E vamos presumir que a margem liquida final é de 8% (valor médio dos últimos 2 anos)

Se aplicamos o PER de 5,5, o justo valor é de 23 dolares aproximadamente.
Aplicando o de 53 é de 230 dolares.

Desta forma, consideramos um PER de 10, que é o igual ao da concorrente chinesa Trina Solar Limited.



O justo valor depende muito do valor de PER utilizado no cálculo.

Para este valor a empresa está desvalorizada.

Sendo mais pessimistas, e considerando um PER de 7 (o actual) o modelo é o seguinte:



Outros dados fundamentais importantes:

Leverage baixo 0,81 x (EV / EBITDA)
Implica divida a diminuir ao longo do tempo.
Será que recorrem a emissão de novas acções em bolsa, diluindo o seu valor, para fazer face ao investimento a longo prazo? ** (julgo que a fase de maturidade em que se encontra a empresa e a criação de valor no futuro irá implicar um programa de reinvestimento de resultados transitados em compra de acções próprias.
Tal não tem vindo a suceder, nos últimos tempos, mas mesmo com essa diluição a cotação é inferior ao seu justo valor.
Perspectiva de recuperação de RL dos anos 2011 e 2012.
Fluxo de caixa operacional positivo no último ano.
Fluxo de caixa investimento a reduzir o que indica uma fase de maturidade.
Fluxo de caixa financiamento aumentar para fazer face ao investimento.
Imobilizado a aumentar e daí amortizações e depreciações
Existencias a reduzir.
Short term debt a aumentar face á diminuição da divida de longo prazo,
Credito de fornecedores a aumentar,
** Acções proprias a aumentar face á um aumento negativo dos resultados transitados (está a comprar acções da própria empresa?) o que implica menor diluição.

Recomendação:

A empresa parece subvalorizada.
Esta num suporte.
RSI é baixo e com divergencia positiva no gráfico.

Compra.

Após ter comprado acçoes da empresa ao preço de abertura, o valor da mesma desce 10% durante o dia de hoje. Vamos analisando a empresa. Parece boa fundamentalmente.

Chinese solar stocks off sharply
Jan 20 2015, 12:40 ET | By: Eric Jhonsa, SA News Editor [Contact this editor with comments or a news tip]

Chinese solar plays JinkoSolar (JKS -6.7%), ReneSola (SOL -3.9%), JA Solar (JASO -3.5%), Daqo (DQ -9.3%), and Trina (previously covered) are posting sizable losses. As is Canadian Solar (CSIQ -10%), which depends heavily on its Chinese manufacturing ops.
The decline comes as WTI crude oil falls by 3.7% to $46.89/barrel, and Henry Hub natural gas falls by 8.6% to $2.86/mmBtu. Also: The Shanghai exchange fell 7.5% on Monday following 3-month ban on new margin trading accounts, before rising 1.8% today. The Nasdaq is currently down 0.3%.
Saudi Arabia has provided a bit of bad news, stating it's pushing back the completion date for its massive clean energy program (includes $109B worth of solar investments) by 8 years to 2040. Unlike many of its top energy customers, Saudi Arabia depends heavily on oil (suddenly much cheaper) for electricity production.
U.S. solar stocks are also underperforming, but less dramatically. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -2.3%) is less than $0.30 away from its 52-week low of $31.77.

Boas noticias para a CSIQ,


Canadian Solar to acquire Sharp's Recurrent for $265M
Feb 3 2015, 08:18 ET | About: Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor [Contact this editor with comments or a news tip]

Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ) +8.3% premarket after agreeing to acquire Sharp's (OTCPK:SHCAY, OTCPK:SHCAF) Recurrent Energy solar operation for $265M.
Recurrent, founded in 2006, has developed and sold more than 520 MW of solar projects and has a project pipeline of 3.3 GW and 1.1 GW in signed contracts, with developments across North America including California and Texas.
CSIQ says the purchase will increase its total solar project pipeline by ~4 GW to 8.5 GW and its late-stage project pipeline by 1 GW to 2.4 GW.


A empresa tem vindo a recuperar da queda de 10% quando começamos a acompanha-la.

Que gráfico tão bonito! Hoje a CSIQ a fazer um GAP muito bullish! Temos uma participação da mesma na carteira!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2880176-the-case-for-canadian-solar-why-the-price-of-oil-does-not-matter


O autor do artigo refere um price target para a empresa entre 35 e 45 dolares.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2887006-canadian-solar-shatters-the-bear-case

RESUMO DO ARTIGO

Summary

Canadian Solar bear case is based mainly on the company running out of lucrative high margin projects.
As we show from company data, the bear thesis is misguided and the project pipeline is much deeper than critics suggest.
The Recurrent shows how the company can gain in the long term even as the industry moves to lower margin projects.



...


Our model also does not assume a Yieldco in 2015 even though that appears highly likely.

Without using any favorable assumptions, at about 15x 2015 earnings, we value the company at about $90.

Our Sentiment: Strong Buy

Vendemos a posição na CSIQ durante a sessão de ontem para preservar o lucro, mas o nosso modelo de avaliação vai ao encontro de uma maior valorização, na ordem dos 32 dolares.

Se tal se verificar, voltaremos a comprar uma posição na empresa.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2921616-canadian-solar-offers-solid-upside-with-limited-downside-risk

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3004886-canadian-solar-low-manufacturing-costs-and-strong-pipeline-keeps-it-ahead-of-pack

Traços gerais temos:

Conclusion

2014 was another good year for Canadian Solar and based on the company's guidance, 2015 should prove to be even better. The company was successful in not only giving out excellent numbers, but also grew its project pipeline with geographic diversification. The company is amongst the largest manufacturers and shippers of solar modules globally, with an extremely low cost structure. Its acquisition of Recurrent Energy will allow it to expand faster in the growing global solar market, which currently exceeds $100 billion a year. Spinning off a yieldco is a potential catalyst for strong stock gains in the coming year. I think Canadian Solar deserves a position in one's solar portfolio, given that it is the best performing Chinese solar stock.