LAD:xnys - Lithia Motors Inc Class A

Lithia Motors Inc is an operator of automotive franchises and a retailer of new and used vehicles and related services.

Análise Técnica:




Análise Fundamental:




Recomendação:

A recomendação é de compra, com um price target no prenchimento do GAP.

Não nos responsabilizamos por eventuais lucros ou prejuizos. A MGinvest não é responsável por nenhuma decisão de investimento baseada em mensagens publicadas neste fórum.

Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) saw a big move last session, as the company’s shares fell by over 20% on the day. The move came on pretty good volume too with far more shares changing hands than in a normal session. This breaks the recent trend of the company, as the stock is now trading below the volatile price range of $73.43 to $84.10 in the past one-month time frame.

Lithia Motors, an automotive retailer, has seen a flat track record when it comes to current year estimate revisions over the past few weeks which has remained unchanged, and the consensus for earnings hasn’t been in a trend either. This recent price action is discouraging, so make sure to keep a close watch on this firm in the near future, and especially on earnings estimates following the recent slump.

Lithia Motors has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) while its Earnings ESP is 0.00%.

Some better-ranked stocks in the same sector include America's Car-Mart Inc. (CRMT), Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG) and Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG). All these stocks hold a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

A empresa apresenta resultados a 30 de Outubro de 2014.

Here's another crisis to worry about: the biggest price drop for used cars in history.

If the prediction pans out, it could do serious damage to new-car pricing, the automobile finance sector and the asset-backed securities market, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jones said in a note Tuesday.

New and used-car dealer Lithia Motors Inc (NYSE: LAD) opened down 20 percent Tuesday after the company cut its outlook. CarMax, Inc (NYSE: KMX) also warned recently.

Jones thinks that could be "just the beginning," and sees an alignment of forces "that could drive the largest decline in used-car prices in U.S. history."

Worst case scenario: Used-car prices drop more than 25 percent within three years. Jones thinks it more likely a drop of 10 percent to 15 percent, but the worst case "could be just as realistic."

Jones figures there's too much supply. Dealers have successfully lowered monthly payments and credit standards to boost new car sales to unsustainable levels, effectively drawing current demand from the future.

While car makers can control supply by simply shutting off production, "you can't unmake a car," Jones said, noting that used-car inventory continues to mount on dealers' lots 36 months after new-car demand hits a typical downturn.

But it's not just the stereotyped used-car salesmen that need worry.

The potential impact on Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) and General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) "hasn't been appropriately considered," according to Jones, who said lower used car prices could offer "formidable competition" to the market for new cars.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Morgan Stanley upgraded Lithia Motors Inc. (LAD) to "overweight" from "underweight" before trading Wednesday.

The firm said it raised the automotive franchising and retailing company's ratings because the stock is attractive, following a 30% sell-off.

The firm set a price target of $80 for Lithia Motors, up from its previous mark at $75.

Shares of Lithia Motors are down 0.05% to $66 in pre-market trading. This comes just two days after one of the worst trading days in the company's history, as the stock closed down 20.84% on Monday.

Separately, TheStreet Ratings team rates LITHIA MOTORS INC as a Buy with a ratings score of B. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:

"We rate LITHIA MOTORS INC (LAD) a BUY. This is driven by several positive factors, which we believe should have a greater impact than any weaknesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its robust revenue growth, impressive record of earnings per share growth, compelling growth in net income, reasonable valuation levels and good cash flow from operations. We feel these strengths outweigh the fact that the company has had generally high debt management risk by most measures that we evaluated."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

   The revenue growth came in higher than the industry average of 0.0%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues rose by 21.1%. Growth in the company's revenue appears to have helped boost the earnings per share.
   LITHIA MOTORS INC has improved earnings per share by 38.1% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past two years. We feel that this trend should continue. During the past fiscal year, LITHIA MOTORS INC increased its bottom line by earning $4.02 versus $3.05 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($5.04 versus $4.02).
   The net income growth from the same quarter one year ago has significantly exceeded that of the S&P 500 and the Specialty Retail industry. The net income increased by 49.9% when compared to the same quarter one year prior, rising from $25.56 million to $38.31 million.
   Net operating cash flow has significantly increased by 171.88% to $18.19 million when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, LITHIA MOTORS INC has also vastly surpassed the industry average cash flow growth rate of 9.32%.

Análise técnica:

Depois de ter fechado o GAP como análise anterior a empresa encontrou uma forte resistência nesse valor minimo do GAP. Se o quebrar em força, ou seja, com elevado volume, poderá ter uma tendência ascendente. Neste momento espera-se uma lateralização da cotação.

A empresa quebrou a zona de resistência que equivalia ao GAP formado com algum volume. Espera-se um pull back na linha de possivel novo suporte uma vez que foi ao encontro da média movel de 21 dias.

NOTA: Apresenta resultados em 30 de outubro, ou seja, amanha.

A empresa apresentou resultados que podem ser vistos no seu relatório trimestral aqui .



Em relação ao gráfico, teve uma forte correcção durante o dia de hoje, mas mantem a sua tendencia de subida.

NOTA : que o price target era o fecho do GAP (foi atingido) . Agora poderá corrigir no eventual suporte nessa possivel resistencia, indo ao encontro da media movel menor do gráfico, ou seja, a de 20 dias.

Update técnico:

Já não actualizavamos este post á vários dias.
A LAD depois de preencher o GAP (que era o nosso price target) criou um duplo topo no gráfico e está a quebrar as médias móveis de 21 e 55 dias.

Parece ter um suporte nos 71 dolares, que poderá ser utilizado para uma eventual entrada, embora a tendencia de CP seja de queda.

Segundo o modelo de avaliação futura, a LAD tem tido uma valorização que vai ao encontro do price target definido nos 90 dolares. Neste momento parece estar a corrigir na resistencia do gráfico.
Por isso, aconselha-se alguma cautela em entrar longo na cotação.
Apresenta resultados do 4Q de 2014 em 17 de Fevereiro.

A LAD continua com a sua tendencia de subida. A quebrar a resistencia de curto prazo, max relativo de Julho 2014.



Pelo crescimento do volume de negocios, parece ser uma growth company. Está no JV do modelo economico. Aplicar o modelo economico para 2016.

Pelo modelo economico para 2015, e tendo em consideração um PER abaixo da industria (12 vs 20) temos que o jv da LAD é de 109 dolares.

A nossa posição neste momento é devido à resistencia de curto prazo no gráfico, neutral.

Abrir uma posição na LAD. Encontra-se num canal ascendente e tem bons fundamentais.