TSLA:xnas - Tesla Motors Inc.

Tesla Motors,Inc., designs, develops, manufactures and sells high-performance fully electric vehicles and advanced electric vehicle powertrain components.

Análise técnica:

A empresa encontrou um bom suporte no fibonacci 61,8, traçado a partir da linha que traça o minimo e o máximo relativo das sessões (minimo de Maio e máximo de setembro), no valor de 220 dolares que coincide com a mm200 dias.



Análise fundamental:

Apesar da empresa apresentar um volume de negócios que tem vindo a crescer, o EPS permanece negativo, pois o Resultado liquido da empresa mantem-se negativo. Devido a esse factor existe alguma dificuldade em calcular o modelo de avaliação futura. Porem, segundo o seguinte site ZACKS , a projecção é de EPS a crescer 33%, e a recomendação é de compra.

Recomendação:

Devido ao facto de ter vindo tocar a média móvel a 200 dias que coincide com o retracement de fibonacci (correcção no 61,80), projectamos algum potencial de subida no curto prazo. É uma acção para deter como longo investimento, devido ao sector em que se insere (carros eléctricos), que no futuro poderá ser alvo de forte procura. O único problema será o facto de ser das acções cotadas no NASDAQ que é mais alvo de short selling, daí o elevado risco, pois existem investidores que apostam contra o crescimento da acção no longo prazo, segundo artigo publicado no post seguinte.


Não nos responsabilizamos por eventuais lucros ou prejuizos. A MGinvest não é responsável por nenhuma decisão de investimento baseada em mensagens publicadas neste fórum.

Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is a company that generated much hoopla when it debuted because of the niche product it was offering. It created even more buzz when it went public; so much so that its price the day of the IPO was above its target price.

If you are considering investing in Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), but you have doubts, consider one of the most trusted methods investors use in determining worthy investments. This method is commonly called the “Warren Buffett Way.” Apply the principals of this method and ask yourself, would Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) be included in as a Berkshire Hathaway position?

Warren Buffett

Here’s a full list of Buffett’s stock holdings.

Before going into the principles of the Warren Buffett Way, let’s review Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). Founded by Elon Musk in 2003, the company’s niche is building high-end autos that are powered by electricity. You may recall the first electric cars to enter the market; they were nothing to be excited about as far as being aesthetically pleasing to the eye. The length of time you could drive the car without charging it also left more to be desired.

Musk, who is the chairman and CEO of Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), sought to change the image of electric vehicles, and to his credit, he did just that. Under his watch, Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s models include the Roadster, the Model S sedan and the Model X SUV. Automobile Magazine named the Model S its “Car of the Year,” citing its design and impressive speed.

Return on investment

With that being said, let’s look at how Tesla stacks up when it comes to one of the principles of the Warren Buffett’s Way – return on investment. The theory is based on how much of a return there is on invested capital. In Tesla’s case, this needs improvement; it is -72.22%. Remember, this indicator measures the strength and historic growth of a company’s return on invested capital. TheStreet Ratings recently ranked Tesla at the bottom of companies it reviews for income generated per dollar of capital.

EPS
Also part of the Buffett Way’s valuation of a stock is the company’s earnings per share. Tesla’s EPS for the fourth quarter missed estimates, coming in at $.65, which amounted to a lost of about $75 million. A bright spot were sales, which totaled about $306 million.

Tesla execs at that time tried to mitigate the dismal earnings results by saying that the company expected to turn a profit during the first quarter ended March 31. Making a profit would be huge for Tesla considering it’s never done so. Its full year losses climbed to $396 million last year from $254 million in 2011.

Tesla’s next earnings release is slated for May and it will cover the first quarter ending March 2013. The market will be looking to see if Tesla will be able to reverse its trend of declining earning per share, which has plagued it for the past two years. Consensus estimates suggest that this will happen. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on four analysts’ forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $-0.17. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $-0.86.

Niche versus the giants

A challenge that Tesla faces is being able to compete in a space that is becoming increasingly more competitive. As mentioned above, consumers’ palate for electric vehicles has been slow to develop. Determined to change that, car industry well-known automakers, such as General Motors Company (NYSE:GM), Nissan Motor Co., Ltd (NASDAQOTH:NSANY), Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) and Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:TM) have all entered the space. General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) and Nissan Motor Co., Ltd (NASDAQOTH:NSANY) hit the ground running with their electric vehicles in 2011, with their Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf. Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:TM) is making its presence known with the Prius, and it reportedly has plans an all-electric RAV4 mini in the works. Their sales have not been particularly strong. Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F)’s EV model is the Electric.

According to Trefis, the electric vehicle market makes up around 1.9% of the total passenger car market. By 2020 that could grow to 10%. So that’s clearly not a huge market to sell to, which increases the chances that Tesla has its work cut out for it to improve its fundamentals and be a viable long-term investment.

The shorts

Also consider this: one of the gauges that can be used to get an idea of investor sentiment is the percentage of those shorting the stock. In Tesla’s case, that percentage was 44.51% at the time of writing, meaning that investors are betting against the long-term success of the company. Since the IPO, the company has kept a high ranking of being one of the most shorted stocks on the NASDAQ.

By comparison, GM sports a short percentage of float near 7%, while Ford’s is even lower, below 2%. Data for Nissan and Toyota is not available, but it’s worth noting that both trade at valuation metrics about half that of Tesla.

The valuation

Nissan, for example, currently has a forward earnings multiple near 16.0x, while Toyota trades at just below 14 times year-ahead EPS. Tesla, meanwhile, a forward P/E ratio above the 30.0 mark, but annual EPS growth is expected to average 46% a year over the next half-decade.

When compared to all of its peers in the major auto manufacturers industry, Tesla comes in second, behind Wall Street’s EPS estimates for Nissan, at about 61% growth annually. Understandably, Tesla trumps the competition that matters the most: GM and Ford. Both automakers see EPS growth expectations above 16%, and Toyota’s is better, but still five percentage points below Tesla.

GARP play?

With that being said, it’s clear that Tesla is a momentum play that fits the role of “growth stock” at the present time. Without moderately attractive multiples, no value investors would be caught dead invested in Tesla, even from a GARP standpoint.

As you’re probably aware, GARP stands for “Growth at a Reasonable Price,” and in Tesla’s case, its growth comes at a PEG ratio of 5.35. This is way overvalued, clearly.

Not a Buffett pick

Based on this, one would likely conclude that Tesla would not be a worthy investment for billionaire Buffett. Yes, the company is led by a CEO who was a driving force behind the hugely successful PayPal. However, there are so many factors that challenge the company that it is hard to think it is a viable long-term investment. Sleek, beautiful electric vehicles have their place in the automobile market, but this stock has no place in your portfolio if you go by the Warren Buffett Way of investing.

Análise técnica:

A cotação encontra-se a atingir a média móvel de 20 dias. Terá tendência a cruzar essa média móvel e a corrigir no curto prazo, porem, no longo prazo a estimativa mantêm-se.

Depois da quebra do ultimo dia a empresa recuperou com uma vela enorme verde, ou seja, uma valorização de 10%. Entretanto a análise mantem-se apesar dos dados macroeconomicos negativos em relação à empresa da quebra de vendas dos carros em setembro e da proibição de venda de carros em um dos estados dos EUA.



Poderá vir a fechar o GAP.

A um dia de apresentar resultados a TESLA continua a corrigir, abaixo da média movel 20 dias.

Apresentação de resultados dia 5 de Novembro.

A empresa apresentou resultados positivos que superaram as expectativas.

VER AQUI

A empresa continua a subir acompanhando a linha de tendência ascendente.

ARTIGO SOBRE A EMPRESA ESCRITO NO SEEKING ALPHA


Tesla Motors: Special Investment Rules?
Nov. 10, 2014 11:53 AM ET | About: Tesla Motors (TSLA)


Tesla's recent earnings figures were weak.
Despite the numbers, the stock reacted well.
Tesla needs to be considered in a different way to really understand its value.

While the numbers reported by Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) at its recent earnings release would be classified as somewhere between neutral and staggeringly bad for most companies, shares of the electric car maker popped by roughly 4% on the news. It would be easy to attribute the move to false enthusiasm on the part of investors, but I believe that there is another, more compelling and actionable, explanation: Tesla is one of those rare entities for which special rules must be formulated to properly evaluate the situation and make prudent decisions. Tesla's numbers suggest that while there have been a few missteps, the overall vision of CEO Elon Musk remains intact and the stock remains a buy.
The Critical Numbers

Before turning to the "Tesla Rules," it is important to start with the most recent quarter's results. The company missed consensus estimates of a $0.15 loss, reporting a loss of $0.25, but revenue grew by 54.7% to $932.3 million, well ahead of the $868 million expected. Other critical figures include the delivery of 7785 Model S units for the quarter, missing the 7800 the company had projected, but still representing a 41.5% jump from a year ago. Based on a temporary shutdown at its plant, Tesla also lowered its full-year sales estimate to 33,000 from 35,000. While these numbers are not horrible, they are not the type of statistics that typically push stocks higher.

In a recent interview with CNBC, Ron Baron of Baron Funds said that his firm was making a significant bet on Tesla, and expected to make ten times his money back in the next ten years. He went on the say "all of us will likely be Tesla customers in 25 years," citing a different culture and approach to the overall industry. Specifically, he cited the few moving parts involved in the Tesla design, making it more resalable and easier to maintain. While this is only the position of one investor, other analysts have joined him in the general sentiment that Tesla's outlook remains positive. The takeaway from all of these institutional opinions is that the basis for what I am calling "Tesla Rules" exists in the market.

Tesla Rules

Without question, earnings figures and other important fiscal metrics are an important part of analyzing a company and making a meaningful call on the direction its stock will take. The problem is, however, that in very rare cases, these measurements do not encapsulate the true essence of either the company or the stock. Consider, for example, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). The company not only seems to lose money every quarter, it does so boldly and without apology. Using EPS simply does not give a meaningful picture of the value of Amazon. Amazon is driven by growth and revenue, and in these categories, it more than holds its own. It has taken real time, but analysts now at least attempt to look beyond the earnings figure when judging Amazon's shares. TAKE FOR EXAMPLE

More important than the wider-than-expected loss for Tesla at this point is how strong its sales can be moving ahead. For the most recent quarter, the company missed its own projection by a staggering 15 cars, but still expects to deliver 50,000 in 2015. Furthermore, the company said it is somewhat ahead of schedule on its partnership with Panasonic to get its battery plant operational. This could push numbers in late 2016 in a meaningful way. While the Model X was delayed by an additional quarter, Tesla was vehement that the delay was not a problem of demand. Musk is taking the attitude that when reinventing an industry, it is critical that the products released are as near flawless as possible. This was a hallmark of Steve Jobs, and investors should see it as such.

The Tesla Rules, then, mean that rather than focusing on every blip in the numbers, long-term investors would do well to focus on where the company is heading. In my opinion, that is toward revolutionizing an industry in ways that remain hard to predict. While the stock is absolutely tradable, it is better as a long-term investment that can and should be scaled into and held indefinitely. In the immediate term, the stock looks strong, and although some fluctuation is expected, I remain a buyer here. The deeper message, however, is that these are shares to hold through fluctuations and should form a core piece of your portfolio.

ARTIGO ESCRITO NO SEEKING ALPHA

Why Tesla Is Just Another PayPal
Nov. 19, 2014 6:10 AM ET  |  4 comments  |  About: Tesla Motors (TSLA)

Disclosure: The author is short TSLA. (More...)
Summary

   Tesla market value today is about $1 million per vehicle to be sold in 2014, which is equivalent to 49-99x that of leading car producers.
   With a flawed strategy, Tesla is directly aiming at disrupting the trillion dollar auto industry and consequently the bigger energy industry.
   Given the major strategic challenges that Tesla is facing, full-time dedicated leadership of Musk is a very basic prerequisite.

Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) market value today is about $32 billion with a lowered sales target of 33,000 vehicles for 2014; that is equivalent to a market value of $1 million per vehicle, which is roughly 57x that of General Motors (NYSE:GM), 49x that of Toyota (NYSE:TM) and 99x that of Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAF). It is true that Tesla is more than just a car company and is aiming big. Nonetheless, Tesla is aiming too big without sufficient strategic and leadership focus and thus shall expect a value correction in the short term. Once such correction occurs, a bigger auto, energy or tech player would most likely acquire Tesla, same like eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) did with PayPal in 2002.

Tesla is directly aiming at disrupting the trillion dollar auto industry, and consequently aiming at disrupting the multi-trillion dollar energy industry. Strategically speaking, that's mammoth, yet Tesla's strategy has been flawed on more than one front:

1. Tesla "open-sourced" its intellectual property to facilitate faster development and adoption of electric cars, but automatically lost a strategic competitive advantage of maintaining an edge and staying ahead of its direct and much bigger competitors.

2. Tesla is constructing the "giga factory" to bring down its battery cost which might be achievable but such a move would "commoditize" Tesla's business since eventually other specialized manufacturers will be able to produce cheaper batteries (possibly for other car producers) in a similar fashion to what happened in the solar PV manufacturing.

3. Tesla has been underestimating the strategic reaction of major incumbent energy companies - forget about big national oil companies, only Exxon (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Shell (NYSE:RDS.A), Total (NYSE:TOT) and BP (NYSE:BP) have more than trillion dollars in market cap - who are expected to promote and develop competitive clean technologies like hydrogen fuel cells which will still disrupt the auto industry; but instead of completely wiping out the auto hydrocarbon fuels market, it will replace it with a cleaner fuel like hydrogen.

To better understand the above strategic landscape, one should carefully look at the actions of the market leader, Toyota. Toyota maintained a tiny 2.4% share of Tesla and recently started selling off that small share after Daimler (DAI) sold their entire 3.9% share in the company. In parallel, Toyota is preparing to launch the sales of its fuel cell vehicles in early 2015 in Japan, USA and Europe and has confirmed that fuel cell vehicles are much better than electric cars as they have lower system cost with a longer travel distance and much shorter refueling time. And given the lower oil prices nowadays, car owners are definitely more sensitive to system cost before switching to "alternative" vehicles.

With all the seismic strategic challenges Tesla is facing, full-time dedicated leadership is a very basic prerequisite. Bill Gates managed to disrupt the computer industry by focusing on one and only one thing, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). Steve Jobs managed to disrupt the mobile industry by focusing on one and only one thing, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). An equally talented Elon Musk of Tesla is instead aiming at three equally big industries by focusing on three companies: SpaceX, Solar City (NASDAQ:SCTY) and Tesla. That certainly brings good risk diversification for Musk but not for Tesla. With part-time leadership at the top, Tesla is more likely to face further product delays and manufacturing issues and is less likely to disrupt the big auto and energy industries.

Update tecnico:



A empresa preencheu o GAP. Agora encontra-se a corrigir nesse valor que coincide com o fibo 61,80 . Espera-se uma correcção de curto prazo, mas a tendência de longo prazo é de subida.

Bill Maurer
Tesla Forecast Cut: Much Ado About Nothing
Nov. 19, 2014 10:28 AM ET

Summary

Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for the automaker.
Model X delivery and EPS forecast slashed.
News predictable after latest guidance.

On Wednesday morning, shares of electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) dropped after Morgan Stanley cut its forecast on the name. Normally, this news would be seen as a big negative, but the analyst's view is a bit conflicting. Also, a lot of the forecast cut was probably due to information already known. Today, I'll discuss the latest news and detail why it isn't that big of a deal.

Here are the most important parts of what the analyst said regarding Tesla's forecast and the stock:

Analyst Adam Jonas now expects Tesla to deliver 5,000 Model X units in 2015, down from a previous forecast of 15,000 units.
He also cut his 2014 earnings-per-share estimate to 73 cents from $1.13, and his 2015 forecast to $2.45 from $4.39.
Meanwhile, Jonas kept his rating on the stock at overweight, and his price target at $320, and said he would view any hiccups or delays in vehicle deliveries "as an opportunity to increase exposure to what we believe is the most important manufacturer in global autos."

The Model X forecast cut is fairly predictable, as Tesla detailed the delayed launch of the model in its latest quarterly report. With the company pushing back the launch, it obviously will impact vehicle deliveries next year. Also, the 2014 EPS cut isn't really news. Tesla's Q4 forecast was light, meaning that analysts all needed to reduce their forecasts. The average EPS estimate for 2014 was $0.99 going into the Q3 report, and the current average is $0.59. The Morgan Stanley analyst is actually a bit above the street average. The 2015 cut is a bit large, and is below the current analyst consensus of $2.99. With Tesla's weak Q4 forecast and the Model X being delayed, it seemed likely that forecasts needed to come down. I don't see this news as that earth shattering.

Additionally, the analyst kept his overweight rating and $320 target on the stock. He stated that any hiccups would represent an opportunity to increase exposure to the "most important manufacturer in global autos". With Tesla shares around $250 in early Wednesday trading, his target represents significant upside from current levels. In the end, I believe that the forecast cut was mostly expected, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see more notes like this in the near future. Tesla's guidance was weak, and estimates needed to come down, so now they are. If shares continue to pull back, it would represent a nice opportunity to dive in.

A empresa encontra-se a corrigir nas médias moveis como era esperado.



Além disso existe este artigo que parece importante: a entrada da audi para o mercado dos carros eléctricos. Poderá fazer uma ligeira pressão nos preços da TSLA.


Audi Confirms 300-Mile Range EV, Plans To Compete With Tesla
Nov. 20, 2014 9:49 AM ET | About: Tesla Motors (TSLA), Includes: AUDVF, VLKAY

Summary

Audi confirms two new pure electric cars will enter production.
First up is the R8 eTron super-sportscar, to be unveiled in January 2015.
Far more important is the 300-mile range EV family car, set for to start production in calendar year 2017.
Audi looks serious about competing with Tesla.
Volkswagen makes ten million cars per year, and has huge procurement scale and manufacturing efficiency advantages.

At the Los Angeles Auto Show Wednesday, Audi CTO Ulrich Hackenberg and Volkswagen's (OTCQX:VLKAY) head of powertrain technology Heinz-Jakob Neusser presented the group's technology road map. During and after this presentation, reporters asked when Audi would have 200-300 mile range EV cars to compete head-to-head with Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA).

The answer to this question is important for the Tesla investment case because shareholders supporting Tesla's current valuation tend to argue that competitors are either uninterested in competing with Tesla, or incapable of doing so. From market share to margins, it makes a big difference whether you have a monopoly or have to fight with price discounting.

Audi's Hackenberg responded to the question by saying that Audi has two pure long-range electric cars in development. The first one will be shown most likely at the Detroit Auto Show this January, 2015.

This first car is the all-electric Audi R8, which is a very expensive and exotic two-seat super sportscar. The price of the current R8 starts at $115,900 and one can safely assume that an all-electric version would be significantly more expensive than that. I am guessing at least $140,000, but it could be more or less.

This car will have a range of approximately 200 miles. Dr. Hackenberg said 450 kilometers, but I had that clarified to be on the European drive cycle, which is dramatically more lenient than the U.S. EPA cycle.

Here is how you would do the math: One mile equals 1.609 kilometers, so that would, in and of itself, mean a hair below 300 miles. However, the U.S. EPA rating tends to run approximately 30% below the European rating. That takes you to approximately 200 miles.

Perhaps not too coincidentally, that 200 miles is not too far from the performance of Tesla's original Roadster, of which approximately 2,500 were sold from 2008 until production ended by 2012.

However, as you might imagine, from an investment standpoint a low-volume super sportscar may not be all that interesting. I have no idea how many electric R8 cars Audi would sell, but it may not be much more than the number of Roadsters Tesla sold, over a similar time period.

This takes us to the second half of his answer, which is a lot more important.

Dr. Hackenberg described a pure electric car that would enter production in calendar year 2017. It would be a large car, fitting five large people with ample luggage space. He did not specify whether the vehicle would be a sedan, hatchback, crossover or SUV.

However, he did say that this all-electric "family car" would have significantly better range than the electric R8 exotic super sportscar. He said they are targeting 300 miles of range "because that's where the competition is today." It was crystal clear and obvious that he meant Tesla.

Of course, there is no way of knowing right now how this 300-mile range electric car from Audi would be priced, and even less so how such a price would relate to manufacturing and development cost. We know that Panasonic supplies the battery pack to Audi's current plug-in car, the A3 eTron, which just went into production in Europe a few months ago.

We know Audi signed an agreement with LG as an additional battery vendor. And we know Audi's Volkswagen parent has selected Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) as a battery supplier as well, in that case for the 2016 VW Passat GTE.

In terms of how Audi - and parent company Volkswagen - could be an effective competitor in making electric cars, it should to some extent be obvious. The Volkswagen group makes approximately ten million cars per year, similar to Toyota (NYSE:TM) and General Motors (NYSE:GM). It has flexible platforms capable of utilizing almost every kind of powertrain - gasoline, diesel, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, pure electric, compressed natural gas, hydrogen, hybrid hydrogen-electric and perhaps others.

In addition, when you produce ten million cars per year you have tremendous procurement advantages. Companies making half as many cars, such as Nissan and Fiat, frequently complain about their volume (scale) disadvantages when compared to Volkswagen, Toyota and GM.

The bottom line here is this: Audi - and by extension its Volkswagen parent - is serious about the widest range of new powertrains imaginable in the industry. VW is the cost leader and it intends to compete in every segment in the automotive market. The Audi 300-mile range EV sure sounds like a direct Tesla competitor and it's deep into development, set for mass production in calendar year 2017.

Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

Additional disclosure: At the time of submitting this article, the author was short TSLA. However, positions can change at any time.

Recent Tesla Developments And Their Implications Going Forward
Nov. 23, 2014 3:30 AM ET | 14 comments | About: Tesla Motors (TSLA)

Summary

There have been many developments in Tesla since I last wrote about it.
This article covers those developments, both positive and negative.
I am still of the opinion that Tesla's share price greatly overstates its value, and as we've seen, Tesla has actually started missing its own deliveries guidance.

Since I've been absent for weeks, I'll cover several different developments in this article. Let's start.
Tesla missed Q3 2014 deliveries guidance

As I had predicted, Q3 2014 deliveries were at risk. In the end, this prediction materialized - by the smallest of margins. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) delivered 7785 Model S cars during Q3 2014, against 7800 guidance (which was already low to begin with) (Source: Tesla shareholder letter, Q3 2014).

The missing of deliveries guidance is more relevant in the sense that expectations for Tesla's future include a substantial expansion of Model S deliveries. If we can start seeing some stagnation and missing of expectations, that represents a clue as to whether the future expectations really are that realistic.
Tesla missed Q4 2014 guidance and 2014 deliveries guidance

Tesla guided for 33,000 deliveries in 2014. That's down from the previous guidance of 35,000 deliveries, and is consistent with what I had predicted (in the same article linked above).

Again, the relevance of this for the future is that if the Model S starts lagging so early, then the expectations for the future - at least those for the Model S - cannot be realistic. Since Tesla's stock is all priced on future expectations, having clues that the expectations are not being met is a powerful reason to be conservative in the name.

It should be said that Tesla put this miss down to a longer than expected factory stoppage due to a production upgrade allowing for higher volumes of production.
Tesla guided for 50% higher deliveries of the Model S in 2015 and for the total number of vehicles to meet previous guidance (60,000, including the Model X)

50% higher deliveries of the Model S in 2015 implies 50,000 Model S deliveries during 2015 (Source: Q3 2014 earnings conference call transcript). My own take is that this is not going to happen - Tesla is going to fail this objective. The reasons are many:

The Model S will be 3 years old, leading to some market saturation
Many geographies including the U.S. already show signs of stagnation
Slightly higher competition
No more large markets to open, filling backlog
More vehicles available as used, competing with new product
And by the tail end of 2015, cannibalization from the Model X

This Model S guidance is overly optimistic and Tesla is likely to fall short. The optimism seems to stem from a short-term bump in orders which Tesla has seen from the "D" - I believe this will quickly evaporate. Two positives will, however, be helping Tesla:

The D versions of the Model S;
The much cheaper leasing program (which might warrant further due diligence).

These seem minor when compared to the headwinds listed above - so my prediction remains: Tesla will deliver less than 50,000 Model S cars in 2015. Quite possibly much less - a number below 40,000 wouldn't surprise me.

My basic opinion here is that Tesla has enough Model X backlog to have some leeway with overall guidance if it starts delivering the Model X soon enough, but will fail Model S guidance by a visible margin.
The new D is now sure to bring pure competition from high-end car makers (though it will take time)

I had already written on how the advent of the P85D meant every other high-end car maker has no choice but to follow suit with its own pure EV vehicle. In the meantime, such was already confirmed by news out of Germany - the reaction is coming. But the reaction will take a few years to materialize.

The inevitability of this reaction comes from the fact that building a comparative-performance ICE is starting to be cost-uncompetitive versus the technology on the P85D. The P85D adds little more than one smaller drive unit and transmission, yet in doing so it offers supercar performance. For an ICE, achieving the same requires a much larger engine, turbos, complex and costly transmissions and in the end the product is still inferior due to the stress put on all components to explore the performance. Not so with the P85D. This combination of performance and usability of that performance must then necessarily bring about similarly-spec'd (pure EV) vehicles from the brands that dominate the high-end of the market today.

Furthermore, when Tesla refreshes the Roadster with the same kind of drivetrain, this will again become obvious - Ferrari and Porsche, among others, won't have the option of not offering something similar.

This is positive in the short term for Tesla, as it won't have comparable competition for a few years, but negative once the other makers react as it will dilute the market significantly. Tesla has up to 3 years to roam free on this angle.
Tesla seems to have de-emphasized its lane change capability

One of the things Tesla emphasized when it presented its new crop of Model S for 2015, were the new driver assist functions (dubbed "Autopilot"). The car has long-range forward sensors, and all-around, shorter-range, ultrasonic sensors. This allows it to offer driver assist functions similar to those that have been available from other car makers, like lane-keeping, adaptive cruise control, self-braking in the presence of danger, etc.

In its attempt to differentiate and pull ahead, Tesla also said that its Model S would allow for automated lane changes, where the driver would simply press the lane turn signal, and the car would take care of making the maneuver safely.

These are the specs Tesla named for its Autopilot in terms of sensors (Source: Tesla blog; bold is mine):

The launch of Dual Motor Model S coincides with the introduction of a standard hardware package that will enable autopilot functionality. Every single Model S now rolling out of the factory includes a forward radar, 12 long range ultrasonic sensors positioned to sense 16 feet around the car in every direction at all speeds, a forward looking camera, and a high precision, digitally controlled electric assist braking system.

And these are the driver assist capabilities expected to be deployed, from the same blog. Again, bold is mine.

Model S will be able to steer to stay within a lane, change lanes with the simple tap of a turn signal, and manage speed by reading road signs and using active, traffic aware cruise control. It will take several months for all Autopilot features to be completed and uploaded to the cars.

So what is the problem here? The problem is that looking 16 feet behind the car is woefully inadequate to provide a safe lane change warning, never mind a fully-automated lane change. 16 feet is less than 5 meters. A car approaching from behind at a 60km/h differential will take less than 0.3 seconds to cover that safety zone, coming from outside it. Being systematically hit from behind in highways when using this system would be a certainty. This feature with such a sensor range is simply unsafe (even to provide warnings), as it assumes very orderly traffic moving at very similar speeds.

It's not a coincidence that equivalent systems from other car makers check for much longer distances. For instance, Volkswagen checks 50 meters behind, or more than 10 times farther than the Tesla. The Tesla system, as spec'd, is highly unsafe.

And indeed, Tesla might have already caught wind of it - if you check Tesla's description of its Autopilot in the teslamotors.com website, the lane change assist has quietly been dropped from view. It might come back later, but only when the sensors are up to the task.
Tesla Model X raises questions of usability

The often-delayed Model X has as its defining feature the use of 2 gullwings in its back doors. Tesla calls them "Falcon doors" and they look good. They'll be motorized so their height won't be a problem, and their opening scheme will mean they'll require no more opening space than a regular door. (Source for image: InsideEVs.com)

These doors have already been cited as a reason for some of the Model X delays. Tesla wants to make them perfect and that's laudable. However, there are at least a couple of instances where it looks like Tesla doesn't have a chance of making them practical:

First, these doors will facilitate water and snow ingress when opened in inclement weather
And second, and most importantly, this is an SUV. SUVs get used often in snow trips - and by the design of those doors, something becomes very obvious: there will be a great difficulty in installing a roof rack in the Model X. Where is all the skiing gear going to go, if not on a roof rack? It would seem this particular problem has not been entirely thought out, and in the end it might punish sales as people realize how limited the car becomes in that use case.

Tesla delayed the Model X further

In its latest shareholder letter, Tesla delayed the Model X to Q3 2015, and even then the model will be subjected to a production ramp-up. As I said previously, the Model X has a large backlog which might allow Tesla to fill the expected Model S deliveries shortcoming. However, any further delays would eliminate this leeway and make it very likely that Tesla would miss its 60,000 deliveries guidance for 2015.

This gives added importance to the Model X schedule, as any further slip up could have an outsized impact on the share price.
Conclusion

While it's amazing what Tesla has achieved so far, the stock still seems out of whack with its future prospects. Increased pure EV competition won't do Tesla any favors even though Tesla supporters seem to think that furthering the adoption of EV is somehow positive for Tesla.

I am an EV fan. Having more competition and more choice does not favor any of the competitors - it instead reduces possible margins for all of them, and bankrupts the weaker. Every new market goes through this - originally there were hundreds of automakers - only a few survived. Even now, in China, the same thing is playing out in its auto market, and only a few will survive.

If lots of competition shows up for pure EVs, only a few will survive in the end as well. Tesla is not sure to be one of them since it really has nothing unique to defend itself other than its own brand, which while seen as innovative, is not necessarily seen as particularly reliable.

A TSLA teve uma forte correcção desde o último update e evidencia a formação de um head & shoulders.

NOTICIA DO SEEKING ALPHA


Have Tesla Shares Fallen Far Enough?
Dec. 12, 2014 5:15 PM ET | 68 comments | About: Tesla Motors (TSLA)


Summary

Tesla shares have fallen sharply since mid-November.
Some commentators have linked the fall to oil prices.
Tesla's long-term outlook remains positive, but trading it requires a plan.

SEGUNDO ALGUNS ANALISTAS A QUEDA DA ACÇÃO ESTA CORRELACIONADA COM A QUEBRA DO PETROLEO, O QUE PODERÁ BENEFICIAR AS EMPRESAS CONCORRENTES AUTOMÓVEIS QUE DESTE MODO GANHAM UMA VANTAGEM COMPETITIVA DO PREÇO DO COMBUSTÍVEL.

Since trading near $285 per share in September, Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been in a veritable free fall that has garnered a wide range of explanations and suggested responses. Some analysts are extolling the fall as a buying opportunity while others see the decline continuing below $200 per share and potentially as low as $165 per share. While the timing of the decline seems suspiciously linked to falling oil prices, price data does not support this view. Ultimately, while the support level I was relying on - just below $225 - in early November has been broken, the long-term thesis remains the same: Tesla is a revolutionary company that belongs in your portfolio for the long term.
Tesla & Oil

While it makes practical sense on one level to blame the decline in Tesla's share price on the sharp sellout that has occurred in oil - and thus gas prices - research data does not support this conclusion. An analysis performed by Bespoke Investment Group (as seen in the WSJ) determined that over the previous six months there is zero correlation between the price action of oil and TSLA. The firm describes the connection as "more of a short-term excuse than the real reason." It is not unreasonable to conclude that as consumers see the cost of owning gas-powered vehicles decline, they are more likely to be less interested in owning an electric vehicle. However, as Bespoke mentions, owning a Tesla is as much about making a statement as pure economics - we are, after all, talking about the extreme luxury end of the auto market.
So Why Did Tesla Tank?

The same Wall Street Journal article that cited the Bespoke study offers other explanations for why shares of Tesla fell so precipitously: bad technicals, negative chatter on a collaboration with BMW (OTCPK:BAMXY) and poor performance by momentum stocks in general. Without over-diminishing the importance of the first two, the hit that has been taken by momentum stocks seems to be the most meaningful factor.

The fundamental story at Tesla has not changed in any meaningful way since the stock was heading straight up. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that the same momentum that pushed the stock higher is now dragging it down. As concerns over the broader market have heightened - driven in large part by the belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve will finally begin raising rates - blind belief in higher stock prices has somewhat faded.

Interestingly, Tesla shares had gone a long way to recovering their all-time highs when Ford (NYSE:F) CEO Mark Fields commented on his company's plans to address the mass market for electric vehicles:

Tesla has done a very good job of bringing electrified cars into the consciousness of the American people. Tesla's approach is to cater to a high-end consumer.

Fields made these comments on November 17. On November 18, shares closed at $257.70 and have traded consistently lowered ever since. Whether reminding the market that Tesla's vehicle for the masses is still years out or that it may have real competition was the driving impetus of the slide, the timing is curious. Either way, killing momentum can be exactly this easy sometimes.

What Now?

The question now facing Tesla shareholders, and would-be shareholders, is whether the stock has finished dropping, or if it has further room to decline. Bespoke suggested that the $200 per share level was a reasonable entry point. One technical analyst saw $165 as a likely floor while others see the current price level as a huge buying opportunity. While I remain a long-term buyer of Tesla, and strongly believe it belongs in most portfolios permanently, the immediate-term is more complicated.

The reality is that if the stock closes below the important psychological level of $200, it is likely to drop well below that. That said, the closer TSLA gets to $200, I could see the stock finding real support and never testing $200.

Given the potential price action for the stock, I would be looking to establish a small initial position below $203 and then see where it goes. I would buy into strength with the understanding that this is meant to be a long-term position and perfect entry is less critical. If the stock closes below $200, traders should set a stop around $198, not looking to buy again until the stock falls below $190 or beyond. Longer-term investors can hold their initial position, adding to it below $190 to establish the long-term position that is recommended. Anyone not comfortable with near-term volatility is best advised to look for other opportunities.

E interessante verificar que o valor de 200 dolares corresponde á correcção no fibonacci 123,60.

Vamos colocar o gráfico para esclarecer esta ideia:

RSI - sub valorizada.
Volume - constante a subir ligeiramente
MACD - num ponto de viragem

Segundo os indicadores apresentados, uma compra da TSLA neste valor parece ser uma boa oportunidade.



Relativamente ao plano de trading, parece que existem três alternativas.
- Ou a cotação cria um suporte no fibo 123,60 nos 200 dolares e começa a inverter a sua posição ou
- A cotação corrigi mais abaixo no fib 168,2 que é o rácio dourado de possiveis correcções, sendo a extensão mais apelativa tecnicamente.
- A empresa formou uma cabeça e ombros e a linha entre o ombro e o maximo da cabeça equivale a uma queda nos 150 dolares no medio prazo.

Por isso vamos aguardar que uma das duas se confirme , e abrir uma posição longa num desses três pontos.

Recorde-se que a opinião do Analista financeiro Paulo Santos do Seeking Alpha é o de que a empresa vai falhar o guidance para 2015 em relação à venda de carros.

Outras das noticias que poderá influenciar a sua cotação é a entrada de uma empresa chinesa no negócio dos carros eléctricos o que poderá retirar alguma facturação no futuro á TSLA:


Leshi Is Moving Into Electric Vehicles: Negative Implication For Tesla
Dec. 11, 2014 12:16 PM ET | 53 comments | About: Tesla Motors (TSLA)


Summary

Chinese software company Leshi is working on a new EV.
Initial model could compete against TSLA in China in pricing and features.
Leshi is looking to move beyond TV and STB. EVs may present a unique opportunity.

Event

Leshi's (300104 CH) CEO Jia Yueting has been developing an electric car and will seek the appropriate manufacturing license. After disrupting China's smart TV market with low-cost but high quality smart TVs, Leshi is potentially looking to disrupt the Chinese EV market with low-cost but decent quality EVs. This would be a negative to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) in that TSLA's pricing in China may need to come down to match that of Leshi or else volume could be disappointing. Given Leshi's disruptive track record, I expect the company to successfully enter China's EV market. Moreover, government backing on the development of EVs should be a positive to Leshi given the government's preference towards local OEMs over foreign OEMs.
Highlights

Will you buy a LeCar? Leshi has been preparing for its push into the EV market for over the past year with a R&D team in Silicon Valley. The team consists of people from traditional carmakers such as Mercedes and Ford (NYSE:F), as well as from Tesla. In addition, Leshi has been working with Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) on what I suspect is the self-driving car features. While Leshi has not given out any details, the CEO did acknowledge that pricing will be reasonable, and that the vehicle will feature a multi-touch display similar to that of TSLA's. The car will also feature self-driving, automatic parking and cloud services such as GPS and search. Given Leshi's investment in cloud platforms, I believe that the company could partner with offline retailers to commercialize O2O and LBS. BAIC will be responsible for the production of the car and the battery will be provided by Atieva, in which Leshi made an investment earlier this year. Atieva is a battery start-up with a third of the founding team and a fifth of the current one coming from TSLA. Atieva is already working with China Lishen on developing battery packs for buses in China and I believe Leshi picked the right partner for its EV project.

Implications to TSLA. TSLA's current model is priced at Rmb650k in China, and I expect this pricing will come down as Leshi introduces an aggressively priced EV to compete against TSLA. It is important to note that aggressive pricing does not mean lower quality. As a matter of fact, the Leshi TV is just as good as a Samsung or LG, if not better, but the pricing is 1/3 compared to that of the competition. The reason is that Leshi makes money off of content distribution such as music, movies and gaming apps as well as in-app items. By selling the hardware (and soon the EV) at cost, Leshi could gain a competitive advantage vs. TSLA. The revenue stream from Leshi's EV will be in the form of mobile ads, LBS, O2O and telematic services, which are high margin and recurring. Expect EV and self-driving cars to take off in China by 2020.

Conclusion

In the short term, TSLA is a good short candidate given the declining oil environment. Speaking for the long term, TSLA remains a short if it tries to bank its future on China's EV market, and I certainly hope that is not the case.

FORBES:

Chinese Internet Company Leshi To Expand Into Electric Cars

Electric cars are struggling to take off in China, but that doesn’t stop Chinese internet company Leshi Internet Information and Technology Co. from entering the market.

The company, which makes internet TVs and set-top video boxes, announced today that it will expand into electric cars by launching a new project called “Super Electric Eco-System,” Chairman and President Jia Yueting said in a post on his Sina Weibo microblogging account. Leshi will redefine electric cars and make products better than those from western companies, Jia said in the post.

Luo Qimei, the company’s Los Angeles-based spokeswoman, told Forbes Leshi’s cars will beat vehicles developed by the Palo Alto, California-based Tesla Motors TSLA -0.82%. She said the company has been working on the SEE project since the beginning of this year.

“We are using our internet model to redefine the automobile industry,” she told Forbes. “Everybody admires Tesla, but our model is better.”

Luo declined to say how much the company will invest in the SEE project. She said it is a most important initiative for the company in the future.

Leshi is entering the market when the future of electric cars looks uncertain in China. Local LOCM -5.48% protectionism barriers, as well as the lack of charging facilities, have deterred consumers from purchasing more green vehicles. BYD Co., the country’s leading producer of electric cars with a 37% share of the market, sold only 7,600 electric- and hybrid-vehicles in the first half of the year, a number that doesn’t signal mass consumer demand for new energy vehicles.

The Chinese government is trying to nurture the market by providing tax breaks on purchases of electric cars made by Chinese companies. It also ordered government officials to use more green vehicles as part of the drive to put 5 million such cars on the road by 2020.

Leshi says it will stand out. The company in July invested in Atieva, an U.S.-based new energy company. Luo said Leshi is now Atieva’s second largest shareholder, after the Beijing-based Beiqi Foton Motor Co.

A TSLA tem sido uma boa oportunidade para fazer swing trade, devido á variação da cotação.

Neste momento oferece um bom trade de CP, com price target perto da eventual resistencia dos 230 dolares com 5% de valorização.
Devido ao facto da empresa não ter apresentado bons resultados nunca calculamos o modelo de avaliação futura. Vamos ver se é possivel calcula-lo com base no guidance para 2015 e 2016.
Dessa forma temos os seguintes dados:

SECTOR : http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/330.html
PER do sector : 11

EMPRESA : http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=TSLA
2015 e 2016 : http://www.4-traders.com/TESLA-MOTORS-INC-6344549/financials/

Dados entre os dois sites confirmam-se.

Aplicando um factor diluição anual de 4%
Crescimento de volume de negócios de 35%
Margem liquida de 3%

PER de 11 (sector 2015) - é uma boa compra
PER de 58 (estimativa para 2016) - não é uma boa compra
PER de 200 (estimativa para 2015) - é uma boa compra
PER de 90 (média dos 3 anteriores) - teremos .... para 2016 / 2017



Um price target de 230 dolares.

Não considero uma boa compra.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3014446-is-elon-musk-giving-up-on-battery-swaps

Apesar do volume de negócio continuar a crescer, a TSLA continua a ter problemas em obter uma margem de lucro positiva. A deterioração do cash flow para 2016 (unclestock.com) indica um problema operacional, com EPS negativo em 2016 (apesar de se estimar que a margem liquida será positiva, o que é um contrasenso).

A cotação no topo do canal descendente, implica uma eventual descida no CP. Continua a transaccionar por baixo das mm.