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MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm

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1MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Empty MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Qua Out 22, 2014 11:52 am

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin

MusclePharm Corp is a scientifically driven, performance lifestyle company that develops, manufactures, markets and distributes branded nutritional supplements. It offers various types of powders, capsules, tablets and gels.

Análise Técnica:

Encontra-se a transaccionar acima da média movel de 20 dias com forte resistência nos 14 dolares.



MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Mslp_x10

Análise fundamental:
Com resultado liquido ainda negativo, a empresa têm apresentado um aumento de volume de negocios nos últimos anos. Apesar de ser uma empresa diluidora de capital, a estratégia tem vindo a ser alterada, e recorre neste momento a financiamento bancário para expandir a empresa.
Uma vez que apenas começara a criar valor em 2015, não chegamos a nenhum valor acerca do justo valor da cotação em bolsa, dado as informações e dados negativos da demonstração de resultado.

Recomendação:

Se quebrar a resistência em força com elevado volume é possível que se torne um suporte válido. Neste momento devido ao fraco volume parece vir a lateralizar. Vamos aguardar pela saída de resultados em novembro.

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

2MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Empty Re: MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Qua Nov 12, 2014 3:10 pm

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin

A empresa apresenta resultados a 14 de Novembro. Continua a lateralizar no canal de suporte e resistência.
Talvez se apresentar resultados acima das expectativas dos analistas possa quebrar a barreira psicológica dos 14 dólares.

MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Mslp_e10

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin


Update: Implications Of MusclePharm Buying Back Stock
Oct. 6, 2014 10:25 AM ET

Summary

MusclePharm bought back 250,000 shares of its own stock.
This has implications for my existing thesis that MusclePharm is evolving from a dilutive company to one that cares about dilution.
In two different ways, this confirms MusclePharm's positive prospects going forward.


Today, MusclePharm (OTCQB:MSLP) announced it bought back 250,000 shares of its own stock for $10 a share. These shares are part of 600,000 shares which were held in escrow following the BioZone acquisition. The buyback was possible at $10 because of a pre-existing repurchase agreement at that price. This has two main implications for my existing thesis that MusclePharm is transitioning from a dilutive penny stock to a high-growth "decent" stock:

First, it highlights the new nature of MusclePharm: MusclePharm is now a regular company that tries to avoid dilution as much as possible, versus its former self that even paid suppliers with stock. This is evident both in the buyback, and in the way MusclePharm is now using regular financing for its financing needs, instead of issuing stock.
And second, this move also portrays confidence in near-term financial developments. It's hard to believe MusclePharm would commit $2.5 million of its own money to buy back stock unless it expected the stock to continue to perform well and that requires its operational performance to also keep up. This is probably helped both by the flurry of new products and the recent extension of distribution to Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT). I roughly estimate that the Wal-Mart distribution alone is enough to provide for greater than 20% revenue growth year-on-year over the next year.

Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

4MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Empty Re: MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Qua Nov 12, 2014 4:37 pm

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin

ARTIGO INTERESSANTE DA MUSCLEPHARM EM SEEKING ALPHA : VER AQUI .

MusclePharm Corp.: An Undiscovered Growth Story With Over 80% Upside
Oct. 22, 2014 11:41 AM ET

Summary

MusclePharm is substantially undervalued, trading at 29x this year's expected earnings, 23x my 2015 earnings estimates and 5.8x my 2016 earnings estimates.
Expected to enter the large and fast growing sports and energy drink markets in late 2014, early 2015.
Gross margin growth and guidance are unappreciated; MusclePharm could achieve 40-45% gross margins over the next few years, while 1H 2014 was ahead of guidance at 34.6% vs guidance of 33%.
Sports supplement industry has consolidated heavily over the past six years; with Post Holdings and Glanbia PLC making multiple acquisitions, MusclePharm is a potential takeover target.
Recent insider buying by six different executives along with share repurchases totaling 250,000 shares and a new revolving credit facility for up to $8 million demonstrate change in management philosophy.


Business Summary and Source of Opportunity

MusclePharm Corporation (OTCQB:MSLP) develops, markets, and sells athlete-focused nutritional supplements primarily to specialty resellers. The Company's products have been formulated to enhance active fitness regimens, including muscle building, weight loss and maintaining general fitness. Its nutritional supplements are available for purchase in over 10,500 United States retail outlets, including Dick's Sporting Goods, GNC, Vitamin Shoppe and Vitamin World. It also sells its products to over 100 online channels, including bodybuilding.com, amazon.com, gnc.com and vitacost.com. Internationally its nutritional supplements are sold in approximately 90 countries.

Over the counter listed MusclePharm is severely undervalued despite a history of poor financial management, the immensely competitive nature of the sports nutrition industry and a pending SEC investigation. MusclePharm's strong brand, reputation for quality products and "Team MP" ambassador athletes including Tiger Woods, Colin Kaepernick, Arnold Schwarzenegger will provide MusclePharm with a powerful base to aggressively enter the sports drinks, nutrition bar, and energy drink markets. MusclePharm's gross margins are on an impressive trajectory and guidance for subsequent years matches my expectations for further improvement. MusclePharm's proven ability to successfully enter new product categories reflects well on management's capabilities in creating products consumers desire.

Catalysts

MusclePharm is currently listed as an over the counter stock and is planning on uplisting to the Nasdaq upon completion of an SEC investigation (more on this in the Key Risks sections). As many institutional investors are prohibited from buying OTC equities, uplisting to the Nasdaq will increase the size of the investor audience for MusclePharm considerably. MusclePharm's gross margin trends and guidance have not been fully appreciated by investors. With the recent acquisition of BioZone Pharmaceuticals and continued focus on vertical integration, MusclePharm will eventually be able to achieve gross margins in the low to mid 40s. New product launches in higher margin categories throughout the end of 2014 and into 2015 should provide a boost to MusclePharm's earnings power. MusclePharm recently entered the sports drink market in October with the launch of Coco Protein, a coconut water drink with 20 grams of protein. In the fourth quarter, MusclePharm will also be launching an energy drink product and sometime in 2015, MusclePharm will be launching their ready to drink Amino1 product which will compete with industry titans Gatorade (owned by Pepsi (NYSE:PEP)) and Powerade (owned by Coke (NYSE:KO)).
Valuation

The $24.43 price target reflects a forward P/E of 39 on my 2015 earnings estimate of $0.59 and a 2016 forward P/E of 10.4 based on my 2016 earnings estimate of $2.36. This price target is conservative in my opinion, as MusclePharm is a potential acquisition target. Even if they were bought out at the median P/S ratio of 2 (low given their growth rate), it would reflect a buyout price of $380 million or $27.74 per share.


O ANALISTA FALA DE UM PRICE TARGET DE 24,43 DOLARES
FORWARD P/E - 39
EPS 2015 0,59 DOLARES

EPS 2016 2,36 DOLARES COM P/E DE 10,4

PRICE TARGET CONSERVATIVO

P/S - 2 REFLECTE UM PREÇO DE MERCADO DE 27,74 DOLARES POR ACÇÃO



Key Risks

MusclePharm is currently being investigated by the SEC regarding internal controls, disclosures of related party transactions, settlements of claims including share issuance, executive compensation, and disclosure of perquisites for the periods of 2010, 2011, and 2012. Though the most likely negative scenario for MusclePharm is receiving a fine from the SEC, it's possible that the SEC could force MusclePharm to make restatements on any or all of the aforementioned filings. The supplement industry is best described as in a state of monopolistic competition, with many competitors making commoditized products that differentiate on price and brand. As other brands lose market share to MusclePharm, they may offer substantial discounts on their products which may help them retain customers but hurt margins for all competitors in the space. MusclePharm also has fairly inexperienced management. CEO and Chairman Brad Pyatt, a former NFL player has done a fantastic job building a strong brand but it has come at the expense of common shareholders, who've experienced an exorbitant amount of dilution over the past few years. Management has paid themselves handsomely as well, despite never having had a profitable year. Investors should closely monitor these risks and consider exiting their position if the positive trends over the last year stagnate or reverse direction.
Investment Theme #1 - Powerful Brand and Products, Future Entry into Large and Fast Growing Markets

Much of MusclePharm's success can be attributed to their ability to make high quality products. This is evidenced by their recent win in the "Best-Tasting Protein of the Year" category in the Bodybuilding.com Supplement Awards, which were held at the Mr. Olympia competition in Las Vegas on September 21st.


The success of MusclePharm's products can also be exhibited by reviewing their products on the bodybuilding.com website. (Bodybuilding.com accounted for 27% of MusclePharm's 2013 sales). MusclePharm currently has ten of their products on the "Top 50 Best Sellers" list, tied for first with Optimum Nutrition. MusclePharm's highest ranked product is their award winning whey protein powder (MusclePharm Combat Powder) currently sitting at #10 on the list. In October 2013, MusclePharm began selling in 430 Costco stores throughout the United States. Nine months later, MusclePharm was selling $800-850 of product per store per week from only two products: Combat Powder and Amino1. MusclePharm is currently working on adding two to three more products to Costco's shelves over the next couple quarters, which should easily drive sales per store per week over $1,000. Sales out of GNC's stores should also increase substantially over the next few quarters, as MusclePharm and GNC agreed to a deal on June 24th that would add a dedicated wall for MusclePharm brand products to all of their U.S. stores, doubling the total stores carrying MusclePharm's products to over 4,000. The recent announcement of MusclePharm entering 3,500 Wal-Mart stores with two of their products - Arnold Schwarzenegger's Iron Whey and Iron Pump - should also be a substantial driver of revenue over the next year. If Wal-Mart sells half of what Costco is selling (an estimated $800/week per store), then revenue to MusclePharm would increase by approximately $11 million per quarter (assuming MusclePharm is selling to Wal-Mart at 60% of the retail price).

Investment Theme #2 - Gross Margin Growth

Over the past four years, MusclePharm has grown their gross margins from a paltry 12.4% in 2010 to 29.9% in 2013. It's impressive that MusclePharm has grown their gross margins so fast, as the supplement industry is prone to discounting and 'buy one get one free' type promotions. President Richard Estalella and Chief Operating Officer Jim Greenwell have done a great job bringing manufacturing and distribution in-house and streamlining MusclePharm's supply chain. With the acquisition of BioZone Pharmaceuticals, MusclePharm will have more control over the manufacturing process of their liquids and gels segments, which will allow them to deliver higher quality products consistently in those markets.

CEO Brad Pyatt had this to say when asked about gross margins by an Ascendiant Capital analyst on the Q2 2014 MusclePharm conference call:

Keay Nikae - Ascendiant Capital

Okay. And then just last question, just about the gross margin. Nice to see some better consistency in first half of this year versus last year. As we go forward, what are the points of leverage there to try to improve that?
Brad Pyatt

Well, I think volume in itself and then in addition to that, again continued negotiations on our procurement and supply chain processes along with additional potential vertical integration. So I think that we've got another 200 to 300 basis points in the next 12 to 18 months. And again we'd like to eventually see the Company grow over the next number of years into the low to mid-40s range.

With higher gross margin liquid products set to be released in Q4 2014 and Q1 2015, MusclePharm's gross margins should continue to increase as management has guided over the next few years, as new product launches gain traction with consumers. MusclePharm has also begun to offer fewer discounts and promotions on their products, which have positively impacted gross margins as well (see Exhibit A on the following page). With management now actively monitoring product lifecycles and the transition from old product formulas to new product formulas, MusclePharm should be able to sustain higher gross margins going forward.

Investment Theme #3 - Acquisition and Activist Target

MusclePharm's history of mismanagement, inefficient cost structure, and low valuation make it an attractive target for both prospective acquirers and activists. The supplement and nutrition industry has consolidated heavily over the past six years, with Glanbia PLC, Post Holdings, Reckitt Benckiser, and GlaxoSmithKline all making acquisitions over the past four years (see Exhibit B, below, for details). MusclePharm's very strong revenue growth, low long-term debt, and high-profile brand ambassadors, including Tiger Woods, Colin Kaepernick, Arnold Schwarzenegger (Arnold Schwarzenegger Series), Laron Landry, Johnny Manziel, Cory Gregory, and Jen Selter (FitMiss line) - all of which have many followers on social media platforms -give MusclePharm a strong marketing advantage over competitors who historically have relied on promotions and heavy discounting to retain customers.



Applying the average acquisition P/S multiple to MSLP (full-year revenue midpoint of $190 million) would yield a buyout price of $435.1 million, or $31.76 per share (assuming 13.7 million shares outstanding). Even using the more conservative median P/S buyout multiple of 2 would yield a buyout price of $380 million, or $27.74 per share. This is roughly 100% upside from current levels. Glanbia PLC and Post Holdings appear to be the most likely potential acquirers given their size and history of acquisitions in the supplement and nutrition industry.

MusclePharm's low valuation attracted small-cap activist hedge fund Wynnefield Capital, who purchased 1,000,000 shares at an average cost of $8.29 a share. Wynnefield Capital's Nelson Obus has been vocal about past shareholder dilution at MusclePharm on recent conference calls, and with MusclePharm recently announcing a credit line with ANB Bank for $8 million and buying back 250,000 shares at $10 per share, it seems that management is finally changing direction for the better on this longstanding issue. Billionaire investor Dr. Philip Frost has also invested in MusclePharm and currently owns 738,314 shares. Despite a roughly 100% appreciation in price per share over the past six months, MusclePharm still offers a substantial margin of safety for additional activist investors to build a position and get involved with the company's operations to further improve the cost structure, management team and unlock value for
shareholders.

Insider Activity: Bullish

Since May, insiders have purchased 36,358 shares ($402,019). Considering how illiquid this stock is (average trading volume of only ~42,000 shares per day) I believe the insider buying is meaningful and indicates a change in management philosophy regarding common shareholders. Shares have been purchased at an average price of $11.06 per share for the period of May 8th through September 19th.


Last November, there was a similar level of insider buying with $422,567 spent on purchasing 51,339 shares, representing an average purchase price of $8.23 per share. Since then, MSLP's share price has increased approximately 67%.


I believe the insider buying within the past year marks an inflection point for MusclePharm and their management team. As outlined previously, management has a long history of taking advantage of retail investors for their own personal gain, which made MusclePharm appear to the investment community as nothing more than another pump-and-dump penny stock scam. The investigation by the SEC, activist involvement from Wynnefield Capital and the investment from Phillip Frost have helped catalyze this change in shareholder treatment. With MusclePharm expected to deliver positive EPS for the first time in their history, investors should be confident that the worst transgressions for MusclePharm are behind them.

Sports Drinks

1) MusclePharm's Amino1 ready to drink product, expected to launch sometime in 2015 and pictured below, will attempt to upend the current dominant brands of Gatorade and Powerade, which combined make up over 95% of the sports drinks market.


According to Statista, Gatorade brands accounted for $4.2 billion in sales in 2013, with Powerade coming in at a distant second with $1.07 billion in sales. In Pepsi's most recent 10-K, Gatorade sales were reported as having declined in the low-single digits, whereas in Coke's most recent 10-K, Powerade sales had increased 11%. With MusclePharm's strong brand, numerous professional athlete endorsers, and successful track record in entering new market segments, industry leaders Gatorade and Powerade should take MusclePharm's entry into the sports drinks market seriously.



On May 26th a study was published in the Nutrition Journal comparing the effect of amino-acid electrolyte beverages (MusclePharm's Amino1) in cellular rehydration to carbohydrate-electrolyte (Gatorade) and flavored water beverages (Crystal Light). The focus of the study was to compare how well each beverage rehydrated the participant and was funded by MusclePharm. The results were positive for MusclePharm, with the study concluding, "Because no differences existed for fluid retention, urine or drink volume at any point, yet USG returned to baseline during the EA trial, an EA supplement may enhance cellular rehydration rate compared to an EC or FW beverage in healthy men and women after acute dehydration of around 2% body mass loss." USG is 'Urine Specific Gravity' and EA stands for 'Essential Amino." Upon conclusion of the study, MusclePharm touted their essential amino acid product and simultaneously called out Gatorade with a press release entitled, "Clinical Research Study in Nutrition Journal Demonstrates That MusclePharm Amino1 Rehydrates Faster Than Water and Gatorade."


On September 19th, MusclePharm announced its first sports drinks product, Coco Protein, a coconut water and protein drink with 20 grams of protein. Coconut water has exploded in popularity over the last decade, with the top three products - Vita Coco, Zico and O.N.E - having grown nearly 600% since 2009 and 2,759% since 2007 to a combined $400 million in sales in 2013 (see Exhibit C). Some nutritionists have criticized coconut water's characterization as "nature's sports drink" due to its lack of protein.


From the L.A. Times, as linked above:

"Coconut water also contains very little protein, which is crucial in a true recovery drink," says Becci Twombley, director of sports nutrition at UCLA. She says that after a hard workout, adults need at least 15 to 17 grams of protein; 8 ounces of coconut water contains less than 2 grams of protein, according to an analysis that Singaporean researchers published in 2009.

MusclePharm is tackling coconut water's main deficiency - its lack of protein - by including 20 grams of protein in each bottle of their Coco Protein. Considering how dominant independently owned Vita Coco, Coca Cola's Zico and Pepsi's O.N.E. have been, it'll be very interesting to see how consumers react to MusclePharm's offering with this key differentiating factor.
Nutrition & Protein Bars

MusclePharm recently entered the food bars market with the launch of their Combat Crunch Bars on September 1st. According to a MarketResearch.com report, this market is expected to grow to approximately $8.3 billion in 2016, for a compound annual growth rate of 7.5% over the five-year period of 2012 to 2016. MusclePharm's entry into the food bars market has been met with great enthusiasm among consumers, as the bars have been selling incredibly well on bodybuilding.com, breaking into the top 50 best sellers list within a week of its launch and hitting a high of #13 on the list as of 10/01/2014). The bars have received an impressive average rating of 9.7 out of 10 among 247 customers who reviewed them-the highest rated protein bar on the website.


The Combat Crunch Bars have been selling so well that the Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough flavor is was even briefly sold out in September (as shown on the right).

The Combat Crunch Bars have even briefly surpassed Quest Nutrition's Quest Bars on bodybuilding.com's top 50 best seller list. The Quest bars currently have a 9.5 out of 10 rating among 873 customers who've reviewed them. Quest Nutrition has experienced explosive growth over the past three years, experiencing a 57,348% 3-year growth rate with 2013 revenues of $82.6 million landing them as the second fastest growing company on the Inc. 5000 2014 list of America's Fastest-Growing Private Companies.

MusclePharm is just scratching the surface of this massive market and is currently only selling these protein bars online. With consumers striving to live a healthier lifestyle through fitness and healthy eating, this product has the potential to be a blockbuster once rolled out to convenience, grocery and wholesale stores. Unlike MusclePharm's core products, the Combat Crunch Bars appeal to a much broader market and as more and more consumers are looking for healthy on-the-go snacks, I expect the Combat Crunch bars to be very successful. MusclePharm will likely roll these bars out to GNC, Costco and other nutrition focused physical retail stores first. Success in these outlets will allow MusclePharm to expand into the convenience and grocery store segments effortlessly.
Energy Drinks

MusclePharm is expected to enter the energy drink market sometime in Q4 with the launch of a sugar-free energy drink called DROPZ. MusclePharm teamed up with ChromaDex to utilize their "PURENERGY" formula which claims to deliver 30% more caffeine, stays in the blood stream longer, and is absorbed more slowly than ordinary caffeine. Due to recent scrutiny of the long-term health effects of energy drink consumption, MusclePharm may be able to generate themselves a competitive advantage by marketing themselves as a safer alternative to health-conscious individuals who still want their energy fix.

The energy drink market has exploded over the past five years, growing 60% between 2008 and 2012 according to Packaged Facts. In 2013, the energy drink matched its 2012 growth rate, growing an astounding 17%. This impressive growth is expected to continue to a total market value of $21.5 Billion by 2017, up from $12.5 Billion in 2012. Market leaders Red Bull and Monster (NASDAQ:MNST) have over 80% market share in the energy drink market, while 5 Hour Energy has a stranglehold on the energy shot market with approximately 88% in market share as of last year.

On July 3rd, MusclePharm signed Tiger Words as an endorser, issuing him 446,853 shares of the company's restricted common stock with an aggregate market value of $5,000,000. Its likely MusclePharm will utilize Tiger Woods to launch either their new energy drink product or their Amino1 ready to drink product.

Key Risk #1 - Dilution

MusclePharm has a history of exorbitant dilution and excessive executive compensation. When MusclePharm completed their reverse merger on February 2nd, 2010, 26,070,838 shares were issued and outstanding. By the end of the year, the number was 118,649,439. By the end of 2011, it was 281,484,658. By the end of Q3, 2012 the number had grown to an incredible 1,610,071,688. On November 26, 2012 the company executed a 1:850 reverse split and then immediately authorized 100M shares. MusclePharm finances were so poorly managed, there were times when they were paying suppliers with stock. During this time period, the stock fell from a high of $110.50 (prices listed reflect the 1-for-850 reverse stock split effected on November 26, 2012) in the Q1, 2011 to a low of $3.40 in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Key Risk #2 - Excessive Executive Compensation and Company Perquisites

MusclePharm's executive compensation package and company perks were so excessive that the SEC began an investigation into the lack of appropriate disclosures. On the most recent 10-K, there are now 29 footnotes under Item 11. Executive Compensation.


Note the "All Other Compensation($)**" column, which includes the following footnotes (emphasis mine):

2) Reflects the amount returned to the Company in July 2012 as a result of restated revenues for the years ended December 31, 2011 and 2010. Mr. Pyatt, Mr. Gregory, and Mr. DeLuca each received cash bonuses and stock compensation in 2011 based on the attainment of certain revenue thresholds, and the restatement resulted in the reduction of 2011 net revenue by approximately $3,626,000. As a result of the restatement each executive voluntarily returned ((i)) $30,311 each of their cash bonus and (ii) their stock grant was reduced by 31,008 shares (equal to a value as of the grant date of $276,746).

6) Amount reflects 401k matching contributions of $14,566 and club membership of $8,119. The remaining balance consists of miscellaneous executive perquisites including cell phone charges, auto allowance, apparel, travel and promotional expenses.

Cool Amount reflects automobile allowances of $16,761 and club memberships of $3,519. The remaining balance includes miscellaneous executive perquisites including medical expenses, apparel, travel and other promotional expenses.

15) Amount reflects $7,361 in club memberships and $5,079 in 401k matching contributions. The remaining balance consists of miscellaneous executive perquisites including allowances for apparel, automobile travel and promotional expenses.

For 2014, the Board of Director's Compensation Committee engaged an independent third party to determine a competitive wage and bonus structure. In 2014, everyone received a raise on their base salary. There was no disclosure regarding bonus and restricted stock award structures, but if they're unchanged from prior years, bonuses and stock awards will be based on year-over-year incremental revenue increases.


The fluctuation in executive compensation as a percentage of revenue has been significant, from a high of 34.17% in 2011 to a low of 3.46% in 2012 and most recently 14.22% in 2013.



Mr. Pyatt made nearly $4.5 million last year, but for some reason still spent company money on personal expenditures including "automobile allowances," "club memberships," and "apparel." MusclePharm lost nearly $18 million last year and, as the chairman and CEO of the company, I'd expect Mr. Pyatt to want to lead by example and limit his personal expenditures while the company is losing money and simultaneously diluting shareholders by raising additional funds through equity financings.

Not only have the management paid themselves a generous amount of money - mostly through stock awards - they've built themselves a top of the line headquarters complete with a brand new state-of-the-art gym, a UFC octagon and cage, a therapeutic pool, an indoor football field and a large theatre room. Sounds like a great place to hang out, but MusclePharm should be more prudent when considering future capital expenditures. As MusclePharm continues their growth, investors should keep a close eye on how MusclePharm spends their money.

In footnote 2) you can see that Mr. Pyatt, Mr. Gregory, and Mr. DeLuca each had to pay back a portion of their cash bonuses and stock grants due to the overstatement of reported revenues. I found no explanation of how bonuses or stock awards are currently calculated and am concerned that they will continue to be based on top line growth rather than bottom line growth. This incentive structure is not aligned with common shareholder values, as management can grow the top line aggressively by offering an increasing amount of promotions and discounts to hit their targets and ensure they receive their bonus, sacrificing gross margins.

Despite this bonus structure, MusclePharm has grown their gross margins tremendously over the past five years - streamlining operations and vertically integrating the company.

I expect this to type of margin growth to continue. Recently, MusclePharm acquired Biozone for the purpose of bringing their liquid and gel production in house. Having complete control over the supply chain and the ability to expand into higher margin product lines should provide a tailwind to MusclePharm's gross margins and earnings over the next few years. I'm anticipating the Amimo1 ready to drink product and the DROPZ energy drink product to have gross margins in the neighborhood of 50%, which should provide MusclePharm with further gross margin expansion over the subsequent years following their launch.

On the second quarter conference call, Pyatt showed confidence in MusclePharm's ability to grow their gross margins and stated that MusclePharm could see an increase of 200 to 300 basis points in margin over the next 12-18 months, gross margins in the low to mid-40s range over the next number of years. This gross margin expansion is consistent with my expectations as MusclePharm enters the higher margin segments of the sports and energy drink markets.
Outstanding Endorsement and Sponsorship Payments

MusclePharm has over $37 million in endorsement and sponsorship liabilities over the next five years. From the most recent 10-Q:

Though MusclePharm recently guided for $185-$195 million of revenue and EPS of $0.45 - $0.50 in 2014, the $13.19 million in endorsement and sponsorship liabilities will be a headwind to earnings growth in 2015. Arnold Schwarzenegger's current endorsement agreement lasts until July 22, 2016 and could be extended two years if certain sales milestones are achieved and agreeable terms can be reached between both parties. Mr. Schwarzenegger currently owns 780,000 shares.

Evidence of Successful Turnaround Reflected in Guidance and Subsequent Raises

MusclePharm started off the year following through on its promise to give financial guidance to investors. On January 29th, the company issued full-year guidance of $150 million in revenue and $0.20 to $0.22 in earnings per share for 2014 based on 13.5 million fully diluted shares. On May 5th, the company raised guidance to $165-$175 million in revenues and $0.41 to $0.51 in earnings per share based on 13.5 million fully diluted shares. After a tremendous second quarter, MusclePharm again raised their full-year guidance to revenue of $185-$195 million and earnings per share of $0.45 to $0.50 based on 12.6 million shares outstanding. MusclePharm looks poised to deliver another strong quarter and I believe they'll top over $200 million in revenue for 2014, due to the unanticipated success of their Combat Crunch bars, which have exceeded my expectations.

Share Price Holding Up Well in Recent Market Sell-Off

MusclePharm has outperformed the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 over the past month as the market has weakened.

The back-of-the-envelope-esque DCF model I've built using what're in my opinion conservative estimates; reflects how undervalued MusclePharm is.

MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Mslp_d10

Conclusion

The primary threats to this investment thesis are increased competition within the supplement and nutrition industry, aggressive discounting from competitors which may cause consumers to switch brands, an inexperienced management team, potential excessive dilution and executive compensation misaligned with shareholder interests.

With Dr. Philip Frost and Wynnefield Capital holding significant positions, I believe the above risks can be mitigated substantially or avoided altogether. Recent insider buying by six different executives along with share repurchases totaling 250,000 shares and a new revolving credit facility for up to $8 million with ANB Bank demonstrate a change in management philosophy regarding shareholder treatment and financing. An uplisting to the Nasdaq is likely to occur within six months pending the resolution of the SEC investigation, which should provide a catalyst to the share price as the prospective investor audience for MusclePharm shares will have widened considerably. A buyout from Glanbia PLC or Post Holdings is possible too-based on prior acquisitions MusclePharm could be acquired at a 100%+ premium to the current share price. New product launches in large and growing markets in late 2014 and 2015 provide an additional catalyst to MusclePharm shares. If MusclePharm is not acquired in the near term, investors could be looking at a multi-bagger over the next three to five years.
Bottom line: Buy

Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

5MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Empty Re: MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Seg Nov 17, 2014 6:42 pm

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin

A MSLP apresentou maus resultados e está a cair durante a sessão. Apesar de termos uma posição aberta na empresa, consideramos que a apresentação de resultados falhou as estimativas dos analistas. Vamos aguardar pelo desenvolvimento por acreditarmos no potencial de crescimento da acção.
Aqui fica os tópicos principais da apresentação de resultados:

MusclePharm off after earnings miss
Nov 17 2014, 10:52 ET | About: MusclePharm Corp. (MSLP)

Sports nutrition firm MusclePharm (OTCQB:MSLP -16.1%) slumps on light turnover of 132K shares in response to its Q3 earnings report after Friday's close. EPS of $0.05 missed estimates by $0.29. Also, its cash balance is only $2.9M.
Management affirms its full-year revenue guidance of $185M - 195M, but revises its EPS guidance to $0.20 - 0.22.

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

6MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Empty Re: MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Qui Nov 20, 2014 11:31 am

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin

MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Mslp_x11

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

7MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Empty Re: MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Ter Dez 30, 2014 2:26 pm

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin

Depois de um salto de gato morto, abrir uma posição na MSLP se traçar a média móvel de 20 dias para cima com algum volume.

MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Mslp_o10

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

8MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Empty Re: MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Qua Dez 31, 2014 4:33 pm

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin

Update à MSLP

Depois de aplicar o modelo de avaliação futuro para 2016 de acordo com as tabelas seguintes e com uma projecção para 2016 temos os dados seguintes:

Ver aqui dados do sector.

Ver aqui dados do 4 traders.

Ver aqui dados do morningstar

MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Mslp_a10

MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Mslp_d10

Dai, para preencher o quadro auxiliar consideramos os dados do 4 traders para os anos entre 2012 e 2015. Para 2016 consideramos um crescimento do volume de negócio de 20%, e uma margem liquida a aproximar-se do sector de 7% e um factor diluição de 1,34.

Por sua vez, no modelo economico em vez de colocar a média da margem líquida calculada em margem liquida final, colocamos a margem liquida média do sector.

O factor diluição consideramos um crescimento médio de 34% o que parece exagerado.

QUADRO AUXILIAR:

MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Mslp_m10

MODELO DE AVALIAÇÃO FUTURA:

MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Mslp_m11

Com base no modelo temos um price target de 16,50 dolares.
Se considerarmos um factor de diluição menor, temos um price target superior ao calculado no modelo.

Por outro lado queria partilhar um modelo de DCF que tive acesso por um dos seguidores da empresa do seeking alpha.

MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Mslp_d11

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

9MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Empty Re: MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Sex Jan 02, 2015 4:16 pm

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin

MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Mslp_x10

A MSLP com uma enorme vela durante o dia de hoje.

De acordo com a nossa análise vamos entrar abrir uma posição long na empresa porque quebrou a mm20 para cima com forte volume.
Vamos apresentar o valor de entrada perto da media movel á espera que ocorra um rebound.
Ver tópico PORTFOLIO.

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

10MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Empty Re: MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Seg Jan 05, 2015 10:23 am

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin

Será a figura de candlestick do gráfico de sexta feira (longo branco) uma figura de reversão? É o que iremos saber durante esta semana. Para já e no curto prazo a MSLP parece ter um pequeno GAP para preencher nos 12,5 dolares.

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

11MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Empty Re: MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Sex Jan 16, 2015 2:39 pm

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin

MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Mslp_x11

Após uma subida no curto prazo, a MSLP corrigiu nas ultimas sessões. Achamos que não é uma boa compra neste momento. Vamos ver se dá sinais mais consistentes no curto prazo.

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

12MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Empty Re: MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Qui Jan 29, 2015 2:56 pm

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2857986-why-is-musclepharm-doing-so-badly-heres-my-best-guess

Uma explicação para a fraqueza relativa da MSLP.

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

13MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Empty Re: MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Ter Mar 17, 2015 3:00 pm

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin

http://seekingalpha.com/news/2374206-musclepharm-collapses-after-disappointing-q4-results

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

14MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Empty Re: MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Sáb Mar 21, 2015 10:17 am

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin

MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Mslp_x10

Depois de ter apresentado maus resultados (Q4 abaixo das expectativas dos analistas), a MSLP teve uma quebra em GAP, vindo a recuperar nas últimas sessões. Com dificuldades de aceder a credito bancário, poderá ter que diluir o seu capital em bolsa para obter financimento para continuar a ter fluxo de caixa que lhe permita cumprir as obrigações. Vamos reavaliar o modelo económico futuro, tendo em conta a diluição futura e a quebra de vendas e respectiva margem liquida, se os custos operacionais se manterem constantes.

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

15MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Empty Re: MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Sáb Mar 21, 2015 10:30 am

Manuel Marques

Manuel Marques
Admin

MSLP:xnas - Muscle Farm Mslp_m10

Pela reavaliação do modelo economico futuro, a MSLP parece ter uma quebra a longo prazo. Com problemas de caixa, e de fundo de maneio terá de diluir o seu valor em bolsa. Com uma perspectiva de 40% de diluição e tendo em conta uma quebra de volume de negócios em 2015 (abaixo do guidance da empresa 210/220 milhoes de dolares) , consideramos 170M$ para 2015, e margem liquida acima de conservadora 1%, o justo valor é na ordem dos 1$ .

http://www.mggestaoemarketing.com/

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