KORS.xnys - Michael Kors Holdings Limited

Michael Kors Holdings Limited is engaged in the design, marketing, distribution, and retailing of branded women's apparel and accessories, and men's apparel. The company operates in three segments: Retail, Wholesale, and Licensing. The Retail segment is involved in the sale of women's apparel; accessories, which include handbags and small leather goods, such as wallets; footwear; and licensed products comprising watches, fragrances, and eyewear. This segment operates 176 company-owned retail stores and 176 locations operated through its licensing partners. The Wholesale segment sells accessories, which include handbags and small leather goods, footwear, and women's and men's apparel to department stores and specialty shops in North America and Europe. The Licensing segment licenses its trademarks on products, such as fragrances, cosmetics, eyewear, leather goods, jewelry, watches, coats, men's suits, swimwear, furs, and ties, as well as licenses rights to third parties to sell the company's products in geographical regions, such as Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, the Middle East, Russia, Turkey, China, Hong Kong, Macau Taiwan, Latin America and the Caribbean, and India. The company sells its products under the names of MICHAEL KORS, MICHAEL MICHAEL KORS, and various other related trademarks and logos. Michael Kors Holdings Limited was founded in 1981 and is based in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong.

Análise Técnica:

A transaccionar abaixo das médias móveis de 21 e 55 dias, tem um GAP para preencher




Análise Fundamental:

Recomendação do ZACKS de compra .
PER industria - 28,9 (ver aqui )
PER forward - 17,36 (ver aqui )





Recomendação:

A empresa apresenta uma forte possibilidade de preencher o GAP.
É uma empresa em forte expansão, com crescimento de vendas e lucros, cuja margem liquida tem vindo a aumentar ao longo do tempo. Apenas exporta 15% da sua produção para a Europa e uma pequena percentagem para a China, o que equivale a cerca de 85% para o mercado norte americano (EUA e Canada) o que lhe dá um potencial de internacionalização interessante.

Por outro lado temos a seguinte análise: ver aqui .

2. Leo Sun: I recently sold my shares of Michael Kors (KORS) because it looked destined to repeat the mistakes that Coach (COH) made -- over-expanding, cutting prices, and undermining its own luxury appeal. Last quarter, Kors' comparables respectively rose 10.8%, 41.1%, and 52.9% in North America, Europe, and Japan. However, analysts had expected North American comparables to rise 15%.

Meanwhile, operating margins at Michael Kors' retail, wholesale, and licensing segments all declined from the prior year quarter. Although the declines were minor, the company's 2015 outlook confirmed an upcoming slowdown. Kors projected third quarter earnings between $1.31 and $1.34 per share on revenue between $1.27 billion and $1.3 billion, assuming a "low double digit compare store sales increase." That barely met the consensus estimate of $1.34 per share on revenue of $1.3 billion. It also expects comparables growth in the "mid-teens" -- quite a slowdown from the 40.1% and 26.2% comparables growth it reported in fiscal 2013 and 2014.

If Kors' slowdown continues, it will be forced to slash prices as sales growth stalls. When that happens, minor margin declines will become big ones, and profits will plunge.

Ficamos na dúvida se devemos comprar KORS, embora pelo modelo económico a acção esteja desvalorizada, por isso, e face ás estimativas de crescimento futuro da empresa vamos abrir uma posição na carteira tendo como price target o preenchimento do GAP.

Kors: International Expansion, Eyewear And Buyback Should Boost
Nov. 24, 2014 5:50 PM ET | 2 comments | About: Michael Kors Holdings (KORS), Includes: COH

Summary

After reporting earnings that represented high growth, Kors has been mired in the low $70s.
Europe and the Far East offer continued opportunities for more stores and higher revenues.
Luxottica license deal set to start early next year will help Kors capitalize on Europe's potential.

Followers of Feria can easily ascertain our bullish sentiment toward the U.S. economy and the health of the consumer. In our last article covering retailer Home Depot (NYSE:HD) we highlighted several economic indicators that we believe point to a strong consumer heading into the holidays. Whether it be lower gas prices, rising wages, falling unemployment or higher confidence, stocks seem to be ratcheting higher. One notable exception to the almost universal rise of the stock market seems to be Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS). Though the stock has dwindled over the last several months, we believe that with a long term, multi-year perspective in mind, the company provides some solid growth and value potential, most notably overseas, and we'd like to highlight why.

Recent Earnings Show International Potential

Kors' most recent earnings call garnered a muted reaction from Wall Street. The company reported revenue of $1 billion, representing a 43% year-over-year increase.

Though Kors grew revenue in North America by 30%, Feria believes international expansion provides the more potent catalyst for revenue growth. In Europe, revenue grew by 109%, with same store sales coming in at a whopping 41% growth. Importantly, Kors expects to open 50 stores across Europe during fiscal 2015.

Japan, China, and the rest of the Far East region also provide important opportunities for Kors. Japan, for instance grew revenues at a 106% clip to $16 million, with almost 53% increase in same store sales.

Interestingly, in China, Kors has entered into a licensing deal with FEHL, or the Far Easy Holdings Limited, that maintains a mere 50 points of sale locations throughout China. A recent Bank of America Merril Lynch research note expects this number to grow to over 1000 points of sale in the long term, contributing handsomely to revenue growth. CEO John Idol explained:

We now have 116 Michael Kors retail locations in Greater China, Korea, Southeast Asia and Australia and believe we can ultimately have 200 locations in this region. We see Asia as an important region for development as we grow our luxury brand worldwide and we are focused on building the business for the long-term.

The deal with FEHL, expanding Kors' 50 locations to compete with Coach's (NYSE:COH) almost 200 locations should put the company on stronger footing in the region. Clearly there is a lot of room to grow, and management is confident the broader region can support more stores.

Licensing

Revenue from licensing continues to be a core strength of Kors. Reporting 43% growth of licensing revenue, the company has shown strong commitment to generating a significant portion of its revenue from licensing, particularly its watches and jewelry.

Kors will be launching updated eyewear with its new licensee Luxottica beginning in January. The ten year deal is widely expected to help Kors establish a stronger foothold in the eyewear industry. As one of the biggest eyewear companies in Europe, Luxottica should provide Kors the opportunity to grow its eyewear segment in a region that is expected to grow for Kors more generally. Additionally, the company opened 35 additional watch and jewelry shop-in-shops worldwide, with a big picture goal of 500 watch and jewelry shops over the long term.

Buyback

Finally, we believe that when a company considers its stock undervalued and begins buying back shares, investors would be silly to not take notice and consider doing the same. The company announced a $1 billion dollar stock repurchase program to unfold over the next two years:

We are pleased to initiate a share repurchase program, which reflects the Board and management's confidence in our ability to achieve our long term growth objectives and generate strong free cash flow. This repurchase program underscores our commitment to returning value to shareholders, while maintaining the financial flexibility to strategically invest in our business.

We are very curious to see how much, if any, of the buyback was performed while the stock has been in the low $70s range. We want to keep an eye out for the next earnings report on any information management can provide on the steps taken to purchase stock in the current quarter.

Conclusion

Given the strong earnings report, and the long runway that international expansion into Europe and the Far East offers, Kors continues to be a compelling long-term growth and value option for our portfolio. With a decent stock repurchase also recently announced, we find ourselves agreeing with management that the company is undervalued and the low $70s offer a compelling entry point.

2 Bullish Notes Suggest It's Time To Buy Michael Kors

Dec. 3, 2014 5:06 PM ET

Summary

Macy's and Piper Jaffray both note KORS as a top holiday retail performer.
Strong North American growth could catapult shares of KORS.
Emerging markets remain strong for KORS.

Macy's (NYSE:M) CEO Terry Lundgren told Brian Sozzi of Belus Capital Advisors that Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS) was a top retail performer on Black Friday. In essence, Michael Kors has been a top performer for each of the last three years, but judging by the stock, investors would never know it.

Shares of Michael Kors have been under pressure for most of 2014, despite the company growing its revenue 43% during its last quarter. This makes Michael Kors one of the fastest growing companies in the retail sector with over a billion dollars in quarterly revenue. Therefore, Michael Kors' stock decline from $100 to $75 has not been a result of revenue growth.

Instead, Michael Kors has seen its valuation collapse thanks to concerns of discounting, which has caused its gross margin to decline ever so slightly. Still, the company's gross profit margin of 61% during its last quarter is among the highest in its sector, giving the company an operating margin over 30%. So in retrospect, who cares if Michael Kors' gross margin declines a few basis points, or even a few 100 basis points? The company is still growing very fast and is highly profitable.

That said, Macy's, a large retailer, specifically noted Michael Kors out of the 100s of brands it carries as a top performer. Furthermore, Piper Jaffray recently noted that the Michael Kors brand is as hot as ever, naming KORS one of its top five holiday retail stocks. This information suggests Michael Kors could surprise investors in the fourth quarter.

While Michael Kors' 10.8% increase in North American comparable store sales in Q3 were strong, it fell well short of the 15% analysts expected. With the stock lower by 20% over the last six months, expectations have declined. Meanwhile, demand is just as high as ever.

Not to mention, Michael Kors is firing on all cylinders in international markets. In Q3, Europe's comp sales increased more than 41%, while Japan's comps were nearly 53% higher. These two regions are believed to be performing well, leaving North American growth and margins as the big question into the holiday season. Based on Lundgren's comments and Piper Jaffray's survey, all signs point to Michael Kors having a phenomenal Q4 in North America. At just 15.5 times next year's expected earnings, there's a lot of room for Michael Kors' stock to trade higher with strong earnings and increased demand. Hence, KORS is a top stock idea from this point going forward.

A empresa preencheu o GAP como estimado.
Era uma das empresas adquiridas para o portfolio, e devido ao facto de ter sido atingido o take profit nesse preenchimento de GAP, na zona dos 78 dolares, o price target foi atingido.

Porem nao se inviabiliza uma entrada na posição da empresa no futuro devido aos seus fortes fundamentais, porem actualmente devido á forte resistencia que foi criada é melhor tomar a mais valia obtida.

NOTICIA DO SEEKING ALPHA

Retail rally led by clothing names
Dec 12 2014, 10:17 ET | By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor [Contact this editor with comments or a news tip]

   The S&P Retail ETF (XRT +0.5%) is out ahead of market averages again on enthusiasm over consumer spending forecasts.

   Today it's apparel/footwear sellers and department store chains with the broad set of gains.

   Gainers: Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) +2.7%, Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL) +1.0%, Under Armour (NYSE:UA) +1.1%, Sequential Brands (NASDAQ:SQBG) +0.7%, Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS) +0.5%, Coach (NYSE:COH) +2.3%, Nike (NYSE:NKE) +0.7%, Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK) +1.1%, Macy's (NYSE:M) +2.4%, Sears Holdings (NASDAQ:SHLD) +1.7%, J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) +1.5%, Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) +0.8%.

A KORS é uma empresa com fundamentais muito interessantes. Pensamos que está desvalorizada.
Tecnicamente num canal descendente, apresenta uma pequena divergencia de RSI positiva e um GAP para preencher no curto prazo nos 72 dolares.

Neste momento encontra-se a transaccionar nos 66 dolares.

Face ao facto de ter preenchido o último GAP e ter deixado uma margem de lucro na carteira ponderamos abrir nova posição neste valor, com price target no preenchimento do GAP recente nos 72 dolares.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2819306-michael-kors-looks-poised-for-a-rebound-in-2015

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2839446-michael-kors-positioned-for-substantial-upside

Michael Kors -8.6% after guidance disappoints
Feb 5 2015, 07:22 ET | About: Michael Kors Holdings (KORS) | By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor [Contact this editor with comments or a news tip]

Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS) announces comparable-store sales increased by 8.6% in FQ3.
Retail sales +37% to $689.4M during the quarter on new store growth.
Wholesale sales +24.4% to $573.8M.
Licensing revenue +8.6% to $51.5M.
Gross profit rate -30 bps to 60.9%.
Retail store count +114 Y/Y to 509. Licensed locations 194.
A notable pullout from the report was the 73% jump in sales from the U.S. e-commerce site (self-hosted) over the retailer's previous outsourced site. If the U.S. e-commerce tally was included in the comp total, Michael Kors would have put up a +10% comp.
Guidance: FY15 revenue of $1.05B-$1.08B expected vs. $1.15B consensus. EPS of $0.80-$0.92 seen vs. $0.94 consensus.
Previously: Michael Kors Holdings beats by $0.15, beats on revenue
KORS -8.6% premarket.



A KORS lembra-me o facto que devemos ter sempre um plano de trading. No seu caso é o preenchimento de GAPS, facto que tem acontecido recentemente com alguma frequencia e ao limite, como podemos observar pelo gráfico. Por isso o último movimento (e uma vez que já tinhamos lucrado com essa estratégia), poderia ter sido aproveitado para obter algum lucro. O preenchimento do último GAP foi feito de forma quase milimétrica!!

Mais uma avaliação bastante positiva da KORS, na ordem dos 94 dolares.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2892196-update-what-we-make-of-michael-kors-earnings

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2939486-michael-kors-should-follow-foot-locker-with-an-enormous-buyback-program


Michael Kors Should Follow Foot Locker With An Enormous Buyback Program
Feb. 23, 2015 3:56 AM ET | About: Michael Kors Holdings (KORS), Includes: FL

Disclosure: The author is long KORS. (More...)
Summary

FL's buyback program will buy back 13% of its shares outstanding.
Such a program can increase stock gains by 50% relative to market cap performance.
If the stock is cheap, and fundamentals strong, large buybacks should occur.
KORS should follow FL's lead.

Foot Locker (NYSE:FL) made a bold move last week, announcing a $1 billion share repurchase program that would buy 13% of its stock at current levels. In a previous article, I showed precisely what buying back stock at such volume could do for a stock, having a profound effect, potentially increasing a stock's gains by 50% versus the company's market capitalization over a two year span. The bottom line is if the stock is cheap enough and free cash flow high enough, then buybacks can be a blessing for shareholders. For this reason, another company should take notice of Foot Locker's plan. That company is Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS).

First and foremost, the reason that Foot Locker's buyback program will be effective is because there is a huge disconnect in the company's fundamental performance and its valuation. When a stock is cheap, a company can buy back more stock, and in the case of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) -- as explained in the linked article above -- buybacks can then reverse shareholder sentiment and accelerate stock gains.

Michael Kors is very much like Foot Locker. It is a company whose fundamental performance well exceeds that of its competitors. Meanwhile, its stock is by far the cheapest in the luxury retail industry. For this reason, a buyback program of immense size makes perfect sense, as it could reverse the negative sentiment that has drove Michael Kors' stock lower despite industry-leading growth.

Michael Kors has a market capitalization of $14 billion, and would need a buyback program of at least $1.5 billion (over 10% of market cap like Foot Locker) in order to have a meaningful impact on the stock. Michael Kors has no long-term debt, cash & equivalents of nearly $950 million, and $480 million of free cash flow over the last year. Therefore, $1.5 billion would be easy to cover, and might be needed to get KORS out of the rut it has fallen into over the last year, being enough to create stability in the stock along with some buying pressure.

All things considered, buybacks are quickly becoming one of my favorite methods of returning capital to shareholders. That is if the stock is cheap, the company has minimal debt, and the company's free cash flow and cash holdings can buyback 10% of the company. In essence, that is my formula for finding stock value in the market, and when a company chooses to identify that value and take advantage of a low interest rate environment to buy stock the effect can be quite meaningful. That said, who knows whether Michael Kors management will embrace the opportunity, but one thing's for sure, if so I will be quick to significantly increase my position in this fast-growing company, and cheap stock.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3015076-michael-kors-good-margin-of-safety-great-investment-opportunity

CONCLUSION

While we believe the concerns regarding the company's growth slow-down is valid, and the margin pressure is real, we are convinced that the company's current stock price reflects market overreaction, and the company's fundamentals are excellent and prospects are very attractive.

In our opinion, we believe there's a lot of margin of safety exists in investing in KORS now, and at a current market price of $66, KORS presents at least 7% upside potential with a minority discount factored in, and about 30% upside without the minority discount.

De acordo com o modelo apresentado a KORS encontra-se desvalorizada.