GOOGLE foi um mau trade.
Razões:
Entrada sem ter em conta a tendencia do mercado.
Fundamentais que a curto prazo são menos importantes que a análise técnica na minha opinião.
Uma análise fundamental demasiado optimista num primeiro ponto, ou, moderada e os indicadores estarem todos correctos e ela estar sub avaliada.
Um artigo recente sobre a GOOGLE no seeking alpha: ver aqui .
Google Sets Sail For The Auto Market
Dec. 23, 2014 10:30 AM ET
Summary
Google's autonomous car shows signs of progress.
Needless to say, Google can monetize automobiles with software, hardware, satellite technologies, and its software ecosystem (Android).
Because Google has an end-to-end solution, paired with significant competencies, the market opportunity looks compelling.
The potential revenue from being a part of the value chain is huge, as automobiles is a $4 trillion market.
In the past week, Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) introduced a working prototype of a self-driving car. While the exact monetization model isn't exactly certain, the company has the opportunity to market software and hardware to automakers, giving it a much larger presence in infotainment, and perhaps launching the company into a significant software-as-a-service business model for automobiles over the foreseeable five-year period.
Quoted from CNET:
Google also noted that the company will use manual controls - like gas and brake pedals - while it tests the cars, to comply with California DMV rules. The company is working on its own prototypes, but it's also looking to partner with auto manufacturers to bring self-driving cars to market within the next five years, the company said last week.
While there's limited detail on how Google plans to monetize the driverless car, it's likely that there's a significant market for Google despite the narrow margins automakers operate on.
Understanding The Ecosystem
The market for autonomous cars can be split into both software and hardware. I break down both aspects.
(click to enlarge) ver artigo no seeking alpha no link aqui.
Source: McKinsey & Company
MEMS (Micro-Electro-Mechanical system) is a low-power chip (gyroscopes and accelerometers are examples) that feeds data into a CPU. The CPU is small, which is referred to as a microcontroller (runs on really simple computing - like less than 32 bits). For the data to be transmitted to a server the microcontroller needs to be connected to a baseband modem, which is what Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) refers to as machine-type-communication. The MEMS that goes into cars is estimated to be a $3 billion to $5 billion opportunity by 2018. More specific data on the market for semiconductors for cars is limited, as data on the total addressable market of baseband modems and microcontroller units for automobiles isn't really available. I could make a basic calculation, but for the purpose of simplification, and to keep the topic on Google, I won't attempt to.
Google will either license or sell a combination of sensors, CPUs and modems, along with software to automakers. The sensors (MEMS) will have to come from either Google or a third-party semiconductor company such as InvenSense (NYSE:INVN). The low-power CPUs will come from Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) (Quark-class) and Qualcomm. The modem technologies would have to be licensed from the aforementioned companies. In other words, the components can be sourced from Intel's fabs, or other fabs, so hardware isn't the biggest issue/barrier.
Google creates value by creating the software, basically the advanced AI that instructs the car to work by itself. Plus, Google integrates the car with various cloud-driven applications. Google provides an ecosystem in which data can plug into and can be used in coordination with other data to offer predictive analysis on road conditions and other factors.
This also gives Google a way to integrate Android into various infotainment systems, as Google can cross-sell both the driver-less car and infotainment together. Having it all integrate into a computer that also happens to run a mobile operating system allows for capabilities where data from the various sensors show up on both an infotainment dashboard and smartphone. Stuff like fuel usage, average speed, user health, etc. can then be transmitted to the spectrum of Android-based device a consumer will own.
Google will likely monetize by generating licensing revenue on a per car basis. The licensing revenue may be charged on a monthly basis directly to the car owner or to the car manufacturer. Maybe a combination of both. Google can justify the price it charges, as it creates significant value. This runs counter to Google's current revenue model, which is mostly ad driven.
The Market Opportunity And Why Google Will Dominate
I believe the market opportunity is as significant as the electric car, as the implementation of the technology won't result in a massive retail markup. In other words, rapid adoption is highly likely.
According to Statista analytics, the automotive industry is set to sell 72.4 million vehicles globally. In terms of actual dollars, it's a $4 trillion a year market, which gives Google a fairly compelling vertical to pursue. I'm not saying Google needs to become an actual automaker, but by being a part of the value chain, it's entirely possible as Google has unlocked a fairly significant business opportunity without needing to compete directly with automakers.
Clearly, there may be competition, but from my understanding, Google stands a fairly reasonable shot at dominating this specific vertical, as the company has superior navigation technology, which will be backed up with an orbit of satellites beaming down images of the whole earth.
Quoted from Motherboard:
Google's Skybox intends to launch a constellation of 24 satellites by 2018, which will survey the globe by taking pictures of its entirety three times a day. This too will eventually, undoubtedly, upgrade the picture quality on its map applications. Google's own birds can capture 90-second video clips and imagery at 30 frames per second.
With superior geographic mapping technology and advanced AI, paired with semiconductors and sensor costs set to rapidly drop, the market is ripe for disruption. Perhaps Google is one of the few companies on earth that can offer this value add, which goes back to the idea of creating markets, rather than blindly competing in them. In this case, Google's got a stack of patents, a multi-billion dollar budget for satellites and an ecosystem it can tie the car into. Clearly, we know where this is going to go. Google will dominate the "car-part" of the Internet of Things. Google has what Warren Buffett labels, "a durable competitive advantage."
Closing Comments
So in five years time, I can't wait to doze off in my car, as it shuttles me to Los Angeles from Phoenix. This would save money on an airplane ticket, as the gas would cost me around $50 in a Toyota Prius for a round trip. Heck, Google can sign me up for a driver-less RV too, so I can tour the country without actually driving. Imagine waking up in the middle of Wisconsin in a moving RV.
With the personal implications aside, I'm somewhat cautious of Google's growth prospects over the interim. However, long term, things are starting to look more promising, as its autonomous car project has real monetization potential.
If I can make a historical comparison, I would compare it to the original colonists as they set sail for America. But, in the case of Google, it would be setting sail for the land of the automobile.
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